Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Alverca B vs Lagoa

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

40' Event
Lucas Santana
49' Event
Felipe Lima
(Penalty)
54'
Agostinho P.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 game between Alverca B and Lagoa finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alverca B.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Alverca B
20%
Draws
36%
Lagoa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Alverca B

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Lagoa haven't matched Alverca B's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Alverca B a 44% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Alverca B Clean Sheet 68%
Lagoa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alverca B Lagoa
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 12
Draws 5 8
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.83 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.2 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Alverca B vs Lagoa
2:1
Nov 9, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Lagoa vs Alverca B
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alverca B Compare

Top Goalscorer Silva G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Lagoa Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucas Santana
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alverca B 95 / 100
Lagoa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alverca B Lagoa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alverca B Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Alverca B scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Lagoa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Alverca B has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Alverca B VS Lagoa
1.88 Goals Scored 1.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Alverca B

(Home)
27 Sept
Alverca B
5 : 0
Fazendense
13 Sept
Naval 1893
1 : 0
Alverca B
06 Sept
Alverca B
0 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
23 Aug
Uniao Da Serra
2 : 1
Alverca B
18 Apr
Alverca B
5 : 0
Industria
Page 1 of 6

Lagoa

(Away)
19 Sept
Atletico CP
4 : 1
Lagoa
13 Sept
Lagoa
0 : 0
Serpa
06 Sept
Santa Clara B
1 : 2
Lagoa
23 Aug
Imortal
1 : 0
Lagoa
16 Aug
Aljustrelense
1 : 1
Lagoa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Louletano 26 14 8 4 36:15 50
2 Malveira 26 13 8 5 38:23 47
3 Alverca B 26 14 5 7 49:32 47
4 Juv. Evora 26 12 10 4 36:23 46
5 GD Alcochetense 26 11 8 7 33:22 41
6 Sintrense 26 11 7 8 30:25 40
7 Lagoa 26 11 6 9 44:34 39
8 O Elvas CAD 26 9 7 10 33:29 34
9 Serpa 26 9 7 10 28:34 34
10 Oriental 26 7 11 8 29:35 32
11 Moncarapachense 26 7 10 9 21:21 31
12 Portimonense B 26 6 4 16 19:42 22
13 Industria 26 2 8 16 20:45 14
14 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 26 1 11 14 20:56 14
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)