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Alverca B vs Portimonense B

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Dias R.
47' Event
Pina A.
57' Event
Felipe Lima

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 game between Alverca B and Portimonense B finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alverca B.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Alverca B
15%
Draws
12%
Portimonense B
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alverca B

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Alverca B come out ahead of Portimonense B on wins alone.
  • Model gives Alverca B a 73% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Alverca B Clean Sheet 68%
Portimonense B Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Alverca B Portimonense B
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 14 7
Draws 5 4
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 1.72 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.61
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 0.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Alverca B vs Portimonense B
4:0
Sep 14, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Portimonense B vs Alverca B
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Alverca B Compare

Top Goalscorer Dias R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pina A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Portimonense B Compare

Avg xG / game 0.4
Avg xA / game 0.24

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Alverca B 95 / 100
Portimonense B 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Alverca B Portimonense B

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alverca B Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Alverca B scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Portimonense B's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.

Portimonense B lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Alverca B VS Portimonense B
2.13 Goals Scored 0.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Alverca B

(Home)
13 Sept
Naval 1893
1 : 0
Alverca B
06 Sept
Alverca B
0 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
23 Aug
Uniao Da Serra
2 : 1
Alverca B
18 Apr
Alverca B
5 : 0
Industria
12 Apr
Serpa
0 : 1
Alverca B
Page 1 of 6

Portimonense B

(Away)
18 Apr
Sintrense
2 : 1
Portimonense B
12 Apr
Portimonense B
1 : 3
Lagoa
04 Apr
Portimonense B
0 : 3
Malveira
29 Mar
Alverca B
4 : 0
Portimonense B
22 Mar
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
0 : 0
Portimonense B
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Louletano 26 14 8 4 36:15 50
2 Malveira 26 13 8 5 38:23 47
3 Alverca B 26 14 5 7 49:32 47
4 Juv. Evora 26 12 10 4 36:23 46
5 GD Alcochetense 26 11 8 7 33:22 41
6 Sintrense 26 11 7 8 30:25 40
7 Lagoa 26 11 6 9 44:34 39
8 O Elvas CAD 26 9 7 10 33:29 34
9 Serpa 26 9 7 10 28:34 34
10 Oriental 26 7 11 8 29:35 32
11 Moncarapachense 26 7 10 9 21:21 31
12 Portimonense B 26 6 4 16 19:42 22
13 Industria 26 2 8 16 20:45 14
14 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 26 1 11 14 20:56 14
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)