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Amarante FC vs Lusitania FC Prediction & H2H Stats

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal 2 Amarante Stadium, Amarante
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Santos J.
40'
Arsenio
48'
Veiga R.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Portugal 2 game between Amarante FC and Lusitania FC finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lusitania FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Amarante FC
30%
Draws
43%
Lusitania FC
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lusitania FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Amarante FC come out ahead of Lusitania FC on wins alone.
  • 43% — that's where the model lands on Lusitania FC taking it.
  • Regular Liga Portugal 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Amarante FC Clean Sheet 20%
Lusitania FC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Amarante FC Lusitania FC
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 15 13
Draws 8 7
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1.3 1.42
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.26
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Amarante FC vs Lusitania FC
0:1
Jul 11, 2026 Club Friendly
Lusitania FC vs Amarante FC
0:0
Apr 26, 2025 Liga 3
Amarante FC vs Lusitania FC
1:1
Mar 1, 2025 Liga 3
Lusitania FC vs Amarante FC
2:1
Jan 4, 2025 Liga 3
Lusitania FC vs Amarante FC
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Amarante FC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Lusitania FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Santos J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Amarante FC 20 / 100
Lusitania FC 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Amarante FC Lusitania FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lusitania FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Amarante FC scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Lusitania FC has conceded goals in 61% of their last 31 outings.

Amarante FC has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.40 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Amarante FC VS Lusitania FC
0.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Amarante FC

(Home)
20 Sept
Ponte da Barca
0 : 2
Amarante FC
13 Sept
Amarante FC
2 : 2
Leiria
06 Sept
Leixoes
3 : 1
Amarante FC
30 Aug
Amarante FC
1 : 0
Benfica B
22 Aug
Vizela
0 : 0
Amarante FC
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Lusitania FC

(Away)
20 Sept
FC Madalena
1 : 3
Lusitania FC
14 Sept
Sporting CP B
1 : 2
Lusitania FC
07 Sept
Lusitania FC
2 : 1
AFS
29 Aug
Academica
0 : 2
Lusitania FC
22 Aug
Lusitania FC
2 : 2
Torreense
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lusitania FC 6 5 1 0 11:4 16
2 Penafiel 6 4 1 1 13:5 13
3 Sporting CP B 6 4 0 2 8:6 12
4 Vizela 6 3 2 1 7:4 11
5 Benfica B 6 3 1 2 7:5 10
6 Leiria 6 3 1 2 10:7 10
7 Leixoes 6 3 1 2 8:6 10
8 Academica 6 3 0 3 8:10 9
9 Tondela 6 3 0 3 7:6 9
10 SC Farense 5 2 2 1 7:5 8
11 Portimonense 6 2 1 3 4:6 7
12 AFS 6 1 3 2 6:6 6
13 FC Felgueiras 6 1 3 2 5:6 6
14 Torreense 6 1 3 2 7:9 6
15 Amarante FC 6 1 2 3 5:8 5
16 Chaves 5 1 1 3 5:9 4
17 FC Porto B 6 1 1 4 4:13 4
18 Feirense 6 0 1 5 1:8 1
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga 3 2027/2028 (Main)