Sport Picks

Stadium Background

America de Propria vs Guarany SE

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano 2025 Estadio Durval Feitosa, Propria
Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Sub
Veron I. In: Jerfesson
Out: Veron I.
23'
Sub
Italo In: Elimar
Out: Italo
36'
Danilo F.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with America de Propria advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
America de Propria
15%
Draws
85%
Guarany SE
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Guarany SE

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Guarany SE carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Guarany SE arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor America de Propria, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
America de Propria Clean Sheet 22%
Guarany SE Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric America de Propria Guarany SE
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 10 11
Draws 12 7
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.12 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 Copa Governo (Sergipe)
America de Propria vs Guarany SE
2:3
Jan 25, 2026 Sergipano
Guarany SE vs America de Propria
0:0
Mar 5, 2025 Sergipano
America de Propria vs Guarany SE
1:0
Feb 2, 2025 Sergipano
America de Propria vs Guarany SE
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

America de Propria Compare

Top Goalscorer Danilo Itaporanga
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Guarany SE Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

America de Propria 37 / 100
Guarany SE 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
America de Propria Guarany SE

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guarany SE Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Guarany SE conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

America de Propria's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.25 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Guarany SE registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

America de Propria VS Guarany SE
0.75 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

America de Propria

(Home)
13 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
America de Propria
08 Aug
America de Propria
2 : 3
Guarany SE
05 Aug
America de Propria
1 : 5
Atletico Gloriense
01 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
3 : 2
America de Propria
29 Jul
America de Propria
0 : 1
Lagarto
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Guarany SE

(Away)
13 Aug
Guarany SE
0 : 1
Desportiva Aracaju
08 Aug
America de Propria
2 : 3
Guarany SE
05 Aug
Lagarto
2 : 0
Guarany SE
01 Aug
Guarany SE
1 : 1
Atletico Gloriense
29 Jul
Falcon
3 : 0
Guarany SE
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Confianca -
TBD -
Lagarto 0
Falcon 1
Itabaiana 2
Sergipe 0
America de Propria 1
Guarany SE 0
Semi-finals
Confianca 5
Falcon 1
Itabaiana 2
America de Propria 1
Final
Confianca 3
Itabaiana 2