Sport Picks

Stadium Background

America de Propria vs Lagarto

Brazil Brazil

Copa Governo (Sergipe)
Our Tip

Match Events

52' Event
Hitalo Rogerio

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. This leg finished 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
America de Propria
15%
Draws
85%
Lagarto
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lagarto

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Lagarto have won more games recently than America de Propria.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Lagarto arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Lagarto, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
America de Propria Clean Sheet 68%
Lagarto Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric America de Propria Lagarto
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 8 10
Draws 11 10
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.03 1.39
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.95
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 29, 2026 Copa Governo (Sergipe)
America de Propria vs Lagarto
0:1
Feb 22, 2026 Sergipano
Lagarto vs America de Propria
0:3
Feb 4, 2026 Sergipano
Lagarto vs America de Propria
0:0
Jan 11, 2025 Sergipano
Lagarto vs America de Propria
2:1
Jan 14, 2024 Sergipano
America de Propria vs Lagarto
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

America de Propria Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Lagarto Compare

Top Goalscorer Hitalo Rogerio
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.77
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

America de Propria 42 / 100
Lagarto 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
America de Propria Lagarto

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: America de Propria scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Lagarto let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Lagarto's recent record shows 2 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

America de Propria VS Lagarto
1 Goals Scored 1.5
2.4 Goals Conceded 1.75
60% Over 1.5 88%
60% Over 2.5 63%
60% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

America de Propria

(Home)
08 Aug
America de Propria
2 : 3
Guarany SE
05 Aug
America de Propria
1 : 5
Atletico Gloriense
01 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
3 : 2
America de Propria
29 Jul
America de Propria
0 : 1
Lagarto
08 Mar
Itabaiana
1 : 0
America de Propria
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Lagarto

(Away)
05 Aug
Lagarto
2 : 0
Guarany SE
01 Aug
Lagarto
1 : 2
Falcon
29 Jul
America de Propria
0 : 1
Lagarto
27 Jun
CSA
2 : 0
Lagarto
21 Jun
Lagarto
1 : 1
CSA
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Falcon 4 4 0 0 8:1 12
2 Desportiva Aracaju 4 2 1 1 5:4 7
3 Lagarto 4 2 0 2 4:4 6
4 Atletico Gloriense 4 1 2 1 6:3 5
5 Guarany SE 4 1 1 2 4:8 4
6 America de Propria 4 0 0 4 5:12 0
Promotion - Copa Governo (Sergipe) (Play Offs)