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Stadium Background

America MG vs Ceara

Brazil Brazil

Serie B Mineirão, Belo Horizonte
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Richardson In: Giovanni Pavani
Out: Richardson
47'
Eder
56'
Sub
Ricardo Silva In: Rafa Barcelos
Out: Ricardo Silva

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie B matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
America MG
33%
Draws
27%
Ceara
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: America MG

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ceara lately — more wins on the board than America MG.
  • Model gives America MG a 40% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
America MG Clean Sheet 68%
Ceara Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric America MG Ceara
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 4 9
Draws 8 9
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 0.75 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 17, 2026 Serie B
America MG vs Ceara
1:1
Nov 19, 2024 Serie B
Ceara vs America MG
1:0
Jul 28, 2024 Serie B
America MG vs Ceara
2:2
Oct 1, 2022 Serie A Betano
Ceara vs America MG
1:2
Jun 8, 2022 Serie A Betano
America MG vs Ceara
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

America MG Compare

Top Goalscorer Segovia M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Ceara Compare

Top Goalscorer Vina
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

America MG 50 / 100
Ceara 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
America MG Ceara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AME Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: America MG scored in 64% of their last 28 outings.

Ceara has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Away concern: Ceara has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

America MG VS Ceara
0.75 Goals Scored 0.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

America MG

(Home)
17 Jul
America MG
1 : 1
Ceara
13 Jul
America MG
1 : 1
Londrina
02 Jul
Cuiaba
1 : 0
America MG
27 Jun
Operario-PR
1 : 0
America MG
23 Jun
America MG
0 : 1
Criciuma
Page 1 of 6

Ceara

(Away)
17 Jul
America MG
1 : 1
Ceara
13 Jul
Ceara
0 : 0
Athletic Club
04 Jul
Goias
2 : 0
Ceara
28 Jun
EC Juventude
2 : 0
Ceara
20 Jun
Ceara
0 : 1
Botafogo SP
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Criciuma18106222:1236
2EC Juventude1895419:832
3Operario-PR1895424:2032
4Vila Nova FC1894525:2131
5Fortaleza1894521:1731
6Novorizontino1886428:1730
7Goias1884620:2428
8Sao Bernardo1876524:1727
9Sport Recife1869323:1727
10Atletico GO1867519:1925
11Cuiaba1859414:1324
12Athletic Club1859416:1624
13CRB1865728:3223
14Nautico1863922:2321
15Botafogo SP1856720:1821
16Londrina1855825:2520
17Ceara1847716:2119
18Avai1845919:2517
19Ponte Preta18221412:358
20America MG18151212:298
Promotion - Serie A Betano 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Serie B (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C 2027 (First stage)