Sport Picks
America MG vs Fortaleza - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Brazil
Serie B Mineirão, Belo Horizonte 
Match Events
3'
3'
Lucas Sasha
9'
9'
Sub
Fabio In: Filipe Dahora
Out: Fabio
22'
22'
Pierre
AI Match Summary
The Serie B game between America MG and Fortaleza finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Fortaleza.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
0%
30%
70%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Fortaleza
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
70%
/ High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Fortaleza come out ahead of America MG on wins alone.
- Win probability leans Fortaleza's way, sitting at 80%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Fortaleza here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
America MG Clean Sheet 16%
Fortaleza Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | America MG | Fortaleza |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 34 |
| Wins | 5 | 15 |
| Draws | 3 | 10 |
| Losses | 21 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 0.76 | 1.24 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.66 | 0.97 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.69 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 7, 2026 Serie B
America MG vs Fortaleza
0:1
Jun 16, 2026 Serie B
Fortaleza vs America MG
0:3
Oct 8, 2023 Serie A Betano
Fortaleza vs America MG
3:2
Aug 31, 2023 Copa Sudamericana
Fortaleza vs America MG
2:1
Aug 24, 2023 Copa Sudamericana
America MG vs Fortaleza
1:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
America MG Compare
Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34
Fortaleza Compare
Top Goalscorer Lucas Sasha
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
America MG 11 / 100
Fortaleza 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
America MG Fortaleza
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Fortaleza Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.
Fortaleza has conceded goals in 62% of their last 34 outings.
America MG's goal record stands at 55% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Scoring Trends
America MG VS Fortaleza
0.63 Goals Scored 1.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
America MG
(Home) 07 Oct
America MG
0 : 1 Fortaleza
03 Oct
Atletico GO
2 : 0 America MG
28 Sept
America MG
0 : 1 EC Juventude
18 Sept
Vila Nova FC
1 : 0 America MG
14 Sept
America MG
0 : 2 Sao Bernardo
Page 1 of 6
07 Oct
America MG
0 : 1 Fortaleza
28 Sept
America MG
0 : 1 EC Juventude
14 Sept
America MG
0 : 2 Sao Bernardo
09 Sept
America MG
2 : 1 Nautico
30 Aug
America MG
2 : 0 Ponte Preta
Page 1 of 3
Fortaleza
(Away) 07 Oct
America MG
0 : 1 Fortaleza
03 Oct
Fortaleza
1 : 1 Nautico
27 Sept
Fortaleza
2 : 2 Athletic Club
20 Sept
Londrina
1 : 2 Fortaleza
13 Sept
Fortaleza
1 : 1 Ceara
Page 1 of 7
07 Oct
America MG
0 : 1 Fortaleza
20 Sept
Londrina
1 : 2 Fortaleza
05 Sept
Goias
0 : 1 Fortaleza
23 Aug
Criciuma
0 : 2 Fortaleza
15 Aug
EC Juventude
0 : 0 Fortaleza
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EC Juventude | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 37:19 | 59 |
| 2 | Vila Nova FC | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 44:31 | 58 |
| 3 | Novorizontino | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 54:27 | 57 |
| 4 | Fortaleza | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 37:27 | 56 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 32 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 33:28 | 53 |
| 6 | Atletico GO | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 40:30 | 52 |
| 7 | CRB | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 49:45 | 51 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 44:34 | 50 |
| 9 | Operario-PR | 32 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 44:43 | 48 |
| 10 | Cuiaba | 32 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 32:25 | 47 |
| 11 | Goias | 32 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 32:40 | 45 |
| 12 | Sao Bernardo | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 44:34 | 45 |
| 13 | Nautico | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 39:40 | 42 |
| 14 | Ceara | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 35:39 | 42 |
| 15 | Athletic Club | 32 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 38:37 | 42 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 36:38 | 38 |
| 17 | Avai | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 32:43 | 33 |
| 18 | Londrina | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 40:47 | 28 |
| 19 | America MG | 32 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 21:53 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 32 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 17:68 | 13 |
Promotion - Serie A Betano 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Serie B (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C 2027 (First stage)
