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America RJ vs CEAC/Araruama

Brazil Brazil

Copa Rio 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Henrique

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with America RJ advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
America RJ
33%
Draws
27%
CEAC/Araruama
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: America RJ

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and America RJ come out ahead of CEAC/Araruama on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans America RJ's way, sitting at 40%.
  • America RJ have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor CEAC/Araruama, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
America RJ Clean Sheet 68%
CEAC/Araruama Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric America RJ CEAC/Araruama
Matches Played 39 29
Wins 13 10
Draws 11 9
Losses 15 10
Goals Scored 0.88 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.25 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 24, 2026 Carioca 2
America RJ vs CEAC/Araruama
0:1
Sep 6, 2025 Copa Rio
America RJ vs CEAC/Araruama
1:0
Sep 3, 2025 Copa Rio
CEAC/Araruama vs America RJ
0:0
Jul 6, 2025 Carioca 2
CEAC/Araruama vs America RJ
1:0
Jun 15, 2024 Carioca 2
America RJ vs CEAC/Araruama
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

America RJ Compare

Top Goalscorer Henrique
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

CEAC/Araruama Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

America RJ 50 / 100
CEAC/Araruama 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
America RJ CEAC/Araruama

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AME Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CEAC/Araruama has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

America RJ has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

America RJ scored in 57% of their last 37 games.

Games between these two average 0.80 goals.

Scoring Trends

America RJ VS CEAC/Araruama
0.88 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

America RJ

(Home)
22 Jul
Nova Iguacu
1 : 1
America RJ
18 Jul
Americano
4 : 1
America RJ
15 Jul
America RJ
0 : 1
Nova Iguacu
11 Jul
America RJ
0 : 0
Americano
04 Jul
America RJ
5 : 0
Serrano FC
Page 1 of 8

CEAC/Araruama

(Away)
22 Jul
Boavista
4 : 0
CEAC/Araruama
15 Jul
CEAC/Araruama
0 : 1
Boavista
08 Jul
CEAC/Araruama
2 : 1
Sao Cristovao
04 Jul
CEAC/Araruama
1 : 1
Cabofriense
27 Jun
CEAC/Araruama
1 : 0
Olaria
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
CEAC/Araruama3
Sampaio Correa FE1
Olaria0
Nova Iguacu1
Cabofriense2
Boavista1
America RJ2
Audax RJ0
Goncalense0
Marica3
Duque de Caxias1
Madureira2
Campo Grande0
Bangu3
Resende2
Portuguesa RJ3
Quarter-finals
CEAC/Araruama3
Nova Iguacu2
Cabofriense2
America RJ5
Marica6
Madureira1
Bangu0
Portuguesa RJ1
Semi-finals
CEAC/Araruama0
America RJ1
Marica1
Portuguesa RJ3
Final
America RJ1
Portuguesa RJ2