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America RN vs CE Forca E Luz

Brazil Brazil

Potiguar 2025 Arena das Dunas, Natal
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Thailor
90' Event
Thiaguinho

AI Match Summary

The Potiguar 2025 game between America RN and CE Forca E Luz finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward America RN.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

78%
America RN
15%
Draws
7%
CE Forca E Luz
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: America RN

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / Very High Confidence
  • America RN carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives America RN a 78% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Potiguar 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors America RN here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
America RN Clean Sheet 68%
CE Forca E Luz Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric America RN CE Forca E Luz
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 19 5
Draws 8 7
Losses 5 17
Goals Scored 1.59 0.93
Goals Conceded 0.66 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 29, 2025 Potiguar
America RN vs CE Forca E Luz
2:0
Mar 30, 2024 Potiguar
CE Forca E Luz vs America RN
1:4
Mar 23, 2022 Potiguar
America RN vs CE Forca E Luz
4:0
Feb 6, 2022 Potiguar
America RN vs CE Forca E Luz
3:1
Jan 26, 2022 Potiguar
CE Forca E Luz vs America RN
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

America RN Compare

Top Goalscorer Thailor
1 Goals
Assists Leader Thiaguinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

CE Forca E Luz Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

America RN 95 / 100
CE Forca E Luz 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
America RN CE Forca E Luz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick America RN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 4:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

America RN found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (32 games).

Defensive concern: CE Forca E Luz conceded in 90% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

America RN went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

America RN VS -
0.88 Goals Scored 0
1 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

America RN

(Home)
26 Jul
Gama
4 : 2
America RN
19 Jul
America RN
1 : 0
Gama
13 Jul
America RN
2 : 1
Trem
04 Jul
Trem
1 : 4
America RN
27 Jun
America RN
1 : 0
Fluminense-PI
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CE Forca E Luz

(Away)
08 Feb
CE Forca E Luz
0 : 4
ABC
01 Feb
CE Forca E Luz
1 : 1
Baraunas
29 Jan
America RN
2 : 0
CE Forca E Luz
25 Jan
Santa Cruz de Natal
5 : 1
CE Forca E Luz
18 Jan
CE Forca E Luz
0 : 2
Potiguar de Mossoró
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 ABC 7 5 2 0 13:1 17
2 America RN 7 5 1 1 13:2 16
3 Laguna RN 7 3 4 0 13:6 13
4 Potiguar de Mossoró 7 4 0 3 9:7 12
5 Santa Cruz de Natal 7 2 1 4 10:14 7
6 Globo FC 7 2 1 4 5:11 7
7 Baraunas 7 1 1 5 6:15 4
8 CE Forca E Luz 7 0 2 5 4:17 2
Promotion - Potiguar 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Potiguar 2025 (Play Offs)