Sport Picks

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America SP vs Independente SP

Brazil Brazil

Paulista B
America SP Logo

America SP

2 - 0
FT
Independente SP Logo

Independente SP

Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Edipo
12' Event
Leozinho
80'
Jean
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 4-1. This leg finished 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
America SP
15%
Draws
40%
Independente SP
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: America SP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Independente SP have won more games recently than America SP.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on America SP taking it.
  • Independente SP arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor America SP, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 37%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
America SP Clean Sheet 10%
Independente SP Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric America SP Independente SP
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 10 20
Draws 11 3
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 1.2 2.35
Goals Conceded 1.1 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Paulista B
Independente SP vs America SP
4:1
Aug 9, 2026 Paulista B
America SP vs Independente SP
2:0
Feb 21, 2024 Paulista A4
America SP vs Independente SP
1:1
Feb 27, 2014 Paulista A3
America SP vs Independente SP
1:1
Jan 27, 2013 Paulista A3
Independente SP vs America SP
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

America SP Compare

Top Goalscorer Edipo
1 Goals
Assists Leader Leozinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Independente SP Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

America SP 40 / 100
Independente SP 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
America SP Independente SP

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

America SP found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Independente SP's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

America SP has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

America SP VS Independente SP
1.88 Goals Scored 3
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

America SP

(Home)
16 Aug
Independente SP
4 : 1
America SP
09 Aug
America SP
2 : 0
Independente SP
02 Aug
Itaqua
0 : 3
America SP
26 Jul
America SP
1 : 1
Itaqua
19 Jul
Jose Bonifacio EC
2 : 4
America SP
Page 1 of 6

Independente SP

(Away)
16 Aug
Independente SP
4 : 1
America SP
09 Aug
America SP
2 : 0
Independente SP
02 Aug
Independente SP
2 : 0
Flamengo SP
25 Jul
Flamengo SP
1 : 0
Independente SP
19 Jul
Independente SP
2 : 1
Paulinense
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Independente SP 4
Tupa 0
Paulinense 3
Sao Carlos 0
Flamengo SP 2
Audax-SP 1
Matonense 1
Assisense 0
Itaqua 6
Paulinia FU 1
Maua FC 3
Uniao Mogi 5
Jose Bonifacio EC 4
Manthiqueira 1
America SP 3
Santacruzense 0
Quarter-finals
Independente SP 3
Paulinense 1
Flamengo SP 4
Matonense 1
Itaqua 5
Uniao Mogi 1
Jose Bonifacio EC 2
America SP 4
Semi-finals
Independente SP 2
Flamengo SP 1
Itaqua 1
America SP 4
Final
Independente SP 4
America SP 3