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American Samoa vs Cook Islands

World World

World Cup 2018
Our Tip

Match Events

7'
Samuelu R.
44'
Mitchell A.
45'
Mohammed I.

AI Match Summary

American Samoa in this World Cup 2018 tie, finishing 2-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
American Samoa
15%
Draws
42%
Cook Islands
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: American Samoa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • American Samoa haven't matched Cook Islands's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Cook Islands's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Cook Islands arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor American Samoa, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and American Samoa have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
American Samoa Clean Sheet 10%
Cook Islands Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric American Samoa Cook Islands
Matches Played 30 26
Wins 4 6
Draws 2 2
Losses 24 18
Goals Scored 0.63 0.85
Goals Conceded 6.73 2.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 8, 2024 Friendly International
Cook Islands vs American Samoa
1:2
Sep 4, 2015 World Championship
American Samoa vs Cook Islands
2:0
Nov 25, 2011 World Championship
American Samoa vs Cook Islands
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

American Samoa Compare

Top Goalscorer Mitchell A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mana'o J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Cook Islands Compare

Avg xG / game 2.67
Avg xA / game 1.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

American Samoa 10 / 100
Cook Islands 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
American Samoa Cook Islands

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cook Islands Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cook Islands's defensive record shows goals conceded in 88% of 26 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.33 goals when they meet.

Cook Islands's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Attacking prowess: American Samoa scored in 40% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

American Samoa VS Cook Islands
0.75 Goals Scored 0.25
5.63 Goals Conceded 2.25
100% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

American Samoa

(Home)
28 Mar
American Samoa
0 : 6
Guam
25 Mar
United States Virgin Islands
5 : 2
American Samoa
08 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 2
American Samoa
06 Sept
American Samoa
0 : 2
Samoa
29 Nov
American Samoa
2 : 6
Tonga
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Cook Islands

(Away)
27 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 3
Tahiti
08 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 2
American Samoa
05 Sept
Cook Islands
1 : 3
Tonga
26 Mar
Cook Islands
1 : 0
Tonga
22 Mar
Samoa
1 : 0
Cook Islands
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