Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Amora vs Mafra

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Medideira Stadium, Amora
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Niang M.
Assist: Goncalves V.
55'
Sub
Goncalves V. In: Neves L.
Out: Goncalves V.
58' Event
Niang M.
Assist: Neves L.

AI Match Summary

Mafra in this Liga 3 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mafra.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Amora
20%
Draws
40%
Mafra
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Mafra have won more games recently than Amora.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Liga 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Mafra have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 67.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Amora Clean Sheet 20%
Mafra Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Amora Mafra
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 7 16
Draws 7 5
Losses 15 10
Goals Scored 0.97 1.61
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 1.21
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 20, 2025 Liga 3
Amora vs Mafra
1:2
Oct 11, 2025 Liga 3
Mafra vs Amora
2:0
Jul 30, 2022 Club Friendly
Mafra vs Amora
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Amora Compare

Top Goalscorer Ribeiro E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.71

Mafra Compare

Top Goalscorer Niang M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.1
Avg xA / game 0.67

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Amora 32 / 100
Mafra 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Amora Mafra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mafra Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Amora scored in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Mafra conceded in 65% of 31 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.67 goals as a typical output.

Amora has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Amora VS Mafra
1.2 Goals Scored 1.63
0.8 Goals Conceded 1.63
60% Over 1.5 75%
40% Over 2.5 50%
20% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Amora

(Home)
23 Aug
Vitoria Setubal
1 : 3
Amora
01 May
Covilha
1 : 1
Amora
25 Apr
Amora
1 : 2
Lusitano GC
19 Apr
1º Dezembro
0 : 1
Amora
12 Apr
Amora
1 : 2
Caldas SC
Page 1 of 6

Mafra

(Away)
29 Aug
Malveira
2 : 3
Mafra
22 Aug
Lusitano GC
2 : 1
Mafra
15 Aug
Atletico CP
1 : 1
Mafra
08 Aug
Mafra
5 : 0
Vitoria Sernache
01 Aug
Mafra
1 : 2
Sintrense
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Guimaraes B 18 8 5 5 20:16 29
2 Amarante FC 18 8 5 5 19:17 29
3 Trofense 18 7 7 4 23:15 28
4 Varzim 18 7 7 4 26:17 28
5 Paredes 18 6 9 3 22:12 27
6 Braga B 18 6 7 5 16:17 25
7 AD Fafe 18 6 6 6 23:21 24
8 AD Marco 09 18 4 7 7 15:22 19
9 Sao Joao de Ver 18 2 8 8 11:26 14
10 Sanjoanense 18 2 7 9 20:32 13
Promotion - Liga 3 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 2025/2026 (Relegation Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CF Os Belenenses 18 12 2 4 27:16 38
2 Mafra 18 9 7 2 28:19 34
3 Academica 18 7 7 4 29:18 28
4 Santarem 18 6 7 5 15:14 25
5 Atletico CP 18 6 4 8 16:17 22
6 Lusitano GC 18 6 4 8 19:19 22
7 Amora 18 5 6 7 19:22 21
8 Caldas SC 18 6 3 9 17:23 21
9 1º Dezembro 18 3 8 7 13:21 17
10 Covilha 18 2 8 8 10:24 14
Promotion - Liga 3 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 2025/2026 (Relegation Group)