Sport Picks
Ancona vs Castelfidardo
Italy
Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 Stadio del Conero, Ancona 
Match Events
65'
65'
Sparandeo L.
89'
89'
Kouko D.
AI Match Summary
Ancona in this Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ancona.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
52%
35%
13%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Ancona
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
52%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Ancona lately — more wins on the board than Castelfidardo.
- Ancona are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Ancona here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Ancona Clean Sheet 68%
Castelfidardo Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ancona | Castelfidardo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 30 |
| Wins | 18 | 6 |
| Draws | 7 | 5 |
| Losses | 6 | 19 |
| Goals Scored | 1.48 | 0.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.84 | 1.9 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.69 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 1, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Ancona vs Castelfidardo
2:0
Sep 28, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Castelfidardo vs Ancona
0:1
Apr 27, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Ancona vs Castelfidardo
0:4
Dec 15, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Castelfidardo vs Ancona
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ancona Compare
Top Goalscorer Sparandeo L.
1 Goals Assists Leader Kouko D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84
Castelfidardo Compare
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ancona 95 / 100
Castelfidardo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ancona Castelfidardo
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick ANC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Ancona scored in 81% of their last 31 games.
Castelfidardo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.
Ancona has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Ancona VS Castelfidardo
1.63 Goals Scored 1.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Ancona
(Home) 10 May
Ancona
1 : 3 Notaresco Calcio
03 May
Ancona
1 : 1 Notaresco Calcio
26 Apr
Aquila Calcio
0 : 0 Ancona
19 Apr
Ancona
3 : 0 Sammaurese
12 Apr
Fossombrone
1 : 2 Ancona
Page 1 of 7
10 May
Ancona
1 : 3 Notaresco Calcio
03 May
Ancona
1 : 1 Notaresco Calcio
19 Apr
Ancona
3 : 0 Sammaurese
02 Apr
Ancona
0 : 2 Teramo
22 Mar
Ancona
1 : 1 AS Sora
Page 1 of 4
Castelfidardo
(Away) 03 May
Castelfidardo
0 : 2 AS Sora
26 Apr
Fossombrone
3 : 1 Castelfidardo
19 Apr
Castelfidardo
1 : 3 Vigor Senigallia
12 Apr
Giulianova
0 : 0 Castelfidardo
02 Apr
Castelfidardo
2 : 2 Maceratese
Page 1 of 6
26 Apr
Fossombrone
3 : 1 Castelfidardo
12 Apr
Giulianova
0 : 0 Castelfidardo
29 Mar
Unipomezia
3 : 1 Castelfidardo
01 Mar
Ostiamare
2 : 1 Castelfidardo
15 Feb
Atletico Ascoli
3 : 1 Castelfidardo
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ostiamare | 34 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 65:25 | 79 |
| 2 | Ancona | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 59:22 | 76 |
| 3 | Teramo | 34 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 65:29 | 74 |
| 4 | Atletico Ascoli | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 55:35 | 55 |
| 5 | Notaresco Calcio | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 43:31 | 51 |
| 6 | Aquila Calcio | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 53:44 | 51 |
| 7 | Giulianova | 34 | 11 | 16 | 7 | 40:31 | 49 |
| 8 | Vigor Senigallia | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 45:40 | 49 |
| 9 | Fossombrone | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 28:34 | 44 |
| 10 | Unipomezia | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 43:42 | 42 |
| 11 | Termoli | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 27:30 | 39 |
| 12 | Maceratese | 34 | 11 | 5 | 18 | 43:49 | 38 |
| 13 | AS Sora | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 40:50 | 38 |
| 14 | Recanatese | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39:57 | 32 |
| 15 | San Marino Calcio | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 33:61 | 31 |
| 16 | Calcio Chieti | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 31:55 | 24 |
| 17 | Castelfidardo | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 30:65 | 23 |
| 18 | Sammaurese | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 30:69 | 20 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Out)
