Sport Picks
Ancona vs Castelfidardo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Italy
Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 Stadio del Conero, Ancona 
Match Events
65'
65'
Sparandeo L.
89'
89'
Kouko D.
AI Match Summary
Ancona in this Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ancona.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
55%
35%
10%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Ancona
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
55%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Ancona lately — more wins on the board than Castelfidardo.
- Ancona are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Ancona here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 87%
Over 1.5 Goals 77.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Ancona Clean Sheet 68%
Castelfidardo Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ancona | Castelfidardo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 18 | 6 |
| Draws | 7 | 5 |
| Losses | 5 | 19 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 0.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 0.90 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 1, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Ancona vs Castelfidardo
2:0
Sep 28, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Castelfidardo vs Ancona
0:1
Apr 27, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Ancona vs Castelfidardo
0:4
Dec 15, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Castelfidardo vs Ancona
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ancona Compare
Top Goalscorer Sparandeo L.
1 Goals Assists Leader Kouko D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Castelfidardo Compare
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.5
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ancona 95 / 100
Castelfidardo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ancona Castelfidardo
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Ancona Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Ancona scored in 83% of their last 30 games.
Castelfidardo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.
Solid form: Ancona remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.
H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.
Scoring Trends
Ancona VS Castelfidardo
1.25 Goals Scored 0.8
1 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 80%
50% Over 2.5 60%
13% Over 3.5 60%
Recent Form & Match History
Ancona
(Home) 07 Oct
Ancona
2 : 1 Fossombrone
04 Oct
Ancona
2 : 0 Sporting Trestina
27 Sept
Angelana
1 : 1 Ancona
20 Sept
Ancona
2 : 2 Aquila Calcio
16 Sept
Maceratese
0 : 1 Ancona
Page 1 of 6
07 Oct
Ancona
2 : 1 Fossombrone
04 Oct
Ancona
2 : 0 Sporting Trestina
20 Sept
Ancona
2 : 2 Aquila Calcio
12 Sept
Ancona
0 : 1 Montecchio Gallo
10 May
Ancona
1 : 3 Notaresco Calcio
Page 1 of 4
Castelfidardo
(Away) 03 May
Castelfidardo
0 : 2 AS Sora
26 Apr
Fossombrone
3 : 1 Castelfidardo
19 Apr
Castelfidardo
1 : 3 Vigor Senigallia
12 Apr
Giulianova
0 : 0 Castelfidardo
02 Apr
Castelfidardo
2 : 2 Maceratese
Page 1 of 6
26 Apr
Fossombrone
3 : 1 Castelfidardo
12 Apr
Giulianova
0 : 0 Castelfidardo
29 Mar
Unipomezia
3 : 1 Castelfidardo
01 Mar
Ostiamare
2 : 1 Castelfidardo
15 Feb
Atletico Ascoli
3 : 1 Castelfidardo
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ostiamare | 34 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 65:25 | 79 |
| 2 | Ancona | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 59:22 | 76 |
| 3 | Teramo | 34 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 65:29 | 74 |
| 4 | Atletico Ascoli | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 55:35 | 55 |
| 5 | Notaresco Calcio | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 43:31 | 51 |
| 6 | Aquila Calcio | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 53:44 | 51 |
| 7 | Giulianova | 34 | 11 | 16 | 7 | 40:31 | 49 |
| 8 | Vigor Senigallia | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 45:40 | 49 |
| 9 | Fossombrone | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 28:34 | 44 |
| 10 | Unipomezia | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 43:42 | 42 |
| 11 | Termoli | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 27:30 | 39 |
| 12 | Maceratese | 34 | 11 | 5 | 18 | 43:49 | 38 |
| 13 | AS Sora | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 40:50 | 38 |
| 14 | Recanatese | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39:57 | 32 |
| 15 | San Marino Calcio | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 33:61 | 31 |
| 16 | Calcio Chieti | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 31:55 | 24 |
| 17 | Castelfidardo | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 30:65 | 23 |
| 18 | Sammaurese | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 30:69 | 20 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Out)
