Sport Picks
Ancona vs Notaresco Calcio
Italy
Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 Stadio del Conero, Ancona 
Match Events
28'
28'
Kouko D.
87'
87'
Forcini A.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
30%
23%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ancona
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Ancona have won more games recently than Notaresco Calcio.
- 47% — that's where the model lands on Ancona taking it.
- Regular Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Ancona Clean Sheet 68%
Notaresco Calcio Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ancona | Notaresco Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 33 | 33 |
| Wins | 19 | 10 |
| Draws | 8 | 11 |
| Losses | 6 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.55 | 1.12 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.82 | 1.09 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 10, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Ancona vs Notaresco Calcio
1:3
May 3, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Ancona vs Notaresco Calcio
1:1
Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Notaresco Calcio vs Ancona
1:1
Apr 13, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Ancona vs Notaresco Calcio
3:1
Dec 1, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Notaresco Calcio vs Ancona
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ancona Compare
Top Goalscorer Kouko D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Notaresco Calcio Compare
Top Goalscorer Forcini A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ancona 59 / 100
Notaresco Calcio 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ancona Notaresco Calcio
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Ancona Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Ancona scored in 79% of their last 33 games.
Notaresco Calcio has conceded goals in 64% of their last 33 outings.
Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.
Solid form: Ancona remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Ancona VS Notaresco Calcio
1.13 Goals Scored 1.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Ancona
(Home) 10 May
Ancona
1 : 3 Notaresco Calcio
03 May
Ancona
1 : 1 Notaresco Calcio
26 Apr
Aquila Calcio
0 : 0 Ancona
19 Apr
Ancona
3 : 0 Sammaurese
12 Apr
Fossombrone
1 : 2 Ancona
Page 1 of 7
10 May
Ancona
1 : 3 Notaresco Calcio
03 May
Ancona
1 : 1 Notaresco Calcio
19 Apr
Ancona
3 : 0 Sammaurese
02 Apr
Ancona
0 : 2 Teramo
22 Mar
Ancona
1 : 1 AS Sora
Page 1 of 4
Notaresco Calcio
(Away) 05 Aug
Pineto
4 : 1 Notaresco Calcio
17 May
Teramo
3 : 1 Notaresco Calcio
10 May
Ancona
1 : 3 Notaresco Calcio
03 May
Ancona
1 : 1 Notaresco Calcio
26 Apr
Notaresco Calcio
1 : 2 San Marino Calcio
Page 1 of 7
05 Aug
Pineto
4 : 1 Notaresco Calcio
17 May
Teramo
3 : 1 Notaresco Calcio
10 May
Ancona
1 : 3 Notaresco Calcio
03 May
Ancona
1 : 1 Notaresco Calcio
19 Apr
Termoli
1 : 2 Notaresco Calcio
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ostiamare | 34 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 65:25 | 79 |
| 2 | Ancona | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 59:22 | 76 |
| 3 | Teramo | 34 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 65:29 | 74 |
| 4 | Atletico Ascoli | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 55:35 | 55 |
| 5 | Notaresco Calcio | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 43:31 | 51 |
| 6 | Aquila Calcio | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 53:44 | 51 |
| 7 | Giulianova | 34 | 11 | 16 | 7 | 40:31 | 49 |
| 8 | Vigor Senigallia | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 45:40 | 49 |
| 9 | Fossombrone | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 28:34 | 44 |
| 10 | Unipomezia | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 43:42 | 42 |
| 11 | Termoli | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 27:30 | 39 |
| 12 | Maceratese | 34 | 11 | 5 | 18 | 43:49 | 38 |
| 13 | AS Sora | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 40:50 | 38 |
| 14 | Recanatese | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39:57 | 32 |
| 15 | San Marino Calcio | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 33:61 | 31 |
| 16 | Calcio Chieti | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 31:55 | 24 |
| 17 | Castelfidardo | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 30:65 | 23 |
| 18 | Sammaurese | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 30:69 | 20 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Out)
