Sport Picks
Ancona vs Notaresco Calcio - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Italy
Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 Stadio del Conero, Ancona 
Match Events
28'
28'
Kouko D.
87'
87'
Forcini A.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
38%
35%
27%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Ancona
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
38%
/ Low Confidence
- Ancona have won more games recently than Notaresco Calcio.
- 38% — that's where the model lands on Ancona taking it.
- Regular Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Ancona Clean Sheet 68%
Notaresco Calcio Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ancona | Notaresco Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 17 | 9 |
| Draws | 8 | 10 |
| Losses | 5 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 1.17 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.83 | 1.07 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 6, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Notaresco Calcio vs Ancona
1:2
May 10, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Ancona vs Notaresco Calcio
1:3
May 3, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Ancona vs Notaresco Calcio
1:1
Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Notaresco Calcio vs Ancona
1:1
Apr 13, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Ancona vs Notaresco Calcio
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ancona Compare
Top Goalscorer Kouko D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Notaresco Calcio Compare
Top Goalscorer Forcini A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ancona 59 / 100
Notaresco Calcio 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ancona Notaresco Calcio
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Ancona Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Ancona scored in 83% of their last 30 games.
Ancona has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Defensive concern: Notaresco Calcio conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.
Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.
Scoring Trends
Ancona VS Notaresco Calcio
1 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Ancona
(Home) 07 Oct
Ancona
2 : 1 Fossombrone
04 Oct
Ancona
2 : 0 Sporting Trestina
27 Sept
Angelana
1 : 1 Ancona
20 Sept
Ancona
2 : 2 Aquila Calcio
16 Sept
Maceratese
0 : 1 Ancona
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07 Oct
Ancona
2 : 1 Fossombrone
04 Oct
Ancona
2 : 0 Sporting Trestina
20 Sept
Ancona
2 : 2 Aquila Calcio
12 Sept
Ancona
0 : 1 Montecchio Gallo
10 May
Ancona
1 : 3 Notaresco Calcio
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Notaresco Calcio
(Away) 04 Oct
Montecchio Gallo
0 : 1 Notaresco Calcio
26 Sept
Notaresco Calcio
1 : 1 Pietralunga
20 Sept
Foligno
1 : 0 Notaresco Calcio
16 Sept
Notaresco Calcio
1 : 0 Santegidiese
12 Sept
Teramo
2 : 2 Notaresco Calcio
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04 Oct
Montecchio Gallo
0 : 1 Notaresco Calcio
20 Sept
Foligno
1 : 0 Notaresco Calcio
12 Sept
Teramo
2 : 2 Notaresco Calcio
05 Aug
Pineto
4 : 1 Notaresco Calcio
17 May
Teramo
3 : 1 Notaresco Calcio
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ostiamare | 34 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 65:25 | 79 |
| 2 | Ancona | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 59:22 | 76 |
| 3 | Teramo | 34 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 65:29 | 74 |
| 4 | Atletico Ascoli | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 55:35 | 55 |
| 5 | Notaresco Calcio | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 43:31 | 51 |
| 6 | Aquila Calcio | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 53:44 | 51 |
| 7 | Giulianova | 34 | 11 | 16 | 7 | 40:31 | 49 |
| 8 | Vigor Senigallia | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 45:40 | 49 |
| 9 | Fossombrone | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 28:34 | 44 |
| 10 | Unipomezia | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 43:42 | 42 |
| 11 | Termoli | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 27:30 | 39 |
| 12 | Maceratese | 34 | 11 | 5 | 18 | 43:49 | 38 |
| 13 | AS Sora | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 40:50 | 38 |
| 14 | Recanatese | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39:57 | 32 |
| 15 | San Marino Calcio | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 33:61 | 31 |
| 16 | Calcio Chieti | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 31:55 | 24 |
| 17 | Castelfidardo | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 30:65 | 23 |
| 18 | Sammaurese | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 30:69 | 20 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Out)
