Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Angola vs Madagascar

Africa Africa

COSAFA Cup Toyota Stadium (Free State), Bloemfontein
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Aurelio L.
(Penalty)
36'
Rakotondraibe T.
39' Event
Aurelio L.
Penalty Missed

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 4-1. This leg finished 4-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Angola
35%
Draws
35%
Madagascar
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Madagascar have won more games recently than Angola.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Madagascar arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Angola, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Angola Clean Sheet 68%
Madagascar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Angola Madagascar
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 11 12
Draws 12 3
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 1.5 1.41
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.44
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 13, 2025 COSAFA Cup
Angola vs Madagascar
4:1
Sep 7, 2023 Africa Cup of Nations
Angola vs Madagascar
0:0
Jun 5, 2022 Africa Cup of Nations
Madagascar vs Angola
1:1
Aug 19, 2017 African Nations Championship
Angola vs Madagascar
1:0
Aug 13, 2017 African Nations Championship
Madagascar vs Angola
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Angola Compare

Top Goalscorer Aurelio L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zini
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Madagascar Compare

Top Goalscorer Razafimahatana M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Angola 41 / 100
Madagascar 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Angola Madagascar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Angola Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Angola's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Madagascar let in goals in 74% of their last 27 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Angola has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Angola VS Madagascar
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Angola

(Home)
09 Jun
Angola
3 : 0
Central Africa
05 Jun
Angola
1 : 1
Mauritania
29 Dec
Angola
0 : 0
Egypt
26 Dec
Angola
1 : 1
Zimbabwe
22 Dec
South Africa
2 : 1
Angola
Page 1 of 6

Madagascar

(Away)
02 Jun
Morocco
4 : 0
Madagascar
31 Mar
Equatorial Guinea
1 : 1
Madagascar
28 Mar
Kyrgyzstan
2 : 5
Madagascar
17 Nov
Madagascar
2 : 0
Equatorial Guinea
12 Oct
Mali
4 : 1
Madagascar
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Angola 4
Madagascar 1
South Africa 3
Comoros 1
Final
Angola 3
South Africa 0
Madagascar 0
Comoros 1