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Ankaragucu vs Arguvan

Turkey Turkey

Turkish Cup 2023/2024 Eryaman Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ankaragucu play Arguvan in the Turkish Cup 2023/2024. Ankaragucu are favorites here. Recently, Ankaragucu averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1 conceded. Arguvan averaged 0.83 goals scored and 2.03 conceded. In past meetings, Ankaragucu won 1, Arguvan won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Nov 1, 2023 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.23 for Ankaragucu and 1.31 for Arguvan. This points to a Ankaragucu double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Ankaragucu
16%
Draws
14%
Arguvan
Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Ankaragucu

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Ankaragucu picked up more points recently compared to Arguvan.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.23 vs 1.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%
Over 2.5 Goals 47%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%
Ankaragucu Clean Sheet 18%
Arguvan Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 67%
Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ankaragucu Arguvan
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 18 5
Draws 7 3
Losses 6 22
Goals Scored 1.55 0.83
Goals Conceded 1 2.03

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 1, 2023 Turkish Cup
Ankaragucu vs Arguvan
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ankaragucu Compare

Top Goalscorer Morutan O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Macheda F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Arguvan Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ankaragucu 67 / 100
Arguvan 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ankaragucu Arguvan

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ankaragucu Win (1)
Secondary Pick Ankaragucu & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +12.7%
1.61
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.7%
2.44
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ankaragucu attacking → ← attacking Arguvan

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ankaragucu scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

Arguvan let in goals in 97% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Ankaragucu went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Arguvan lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

61 Points in last 5 18
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00