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Anorga vs Zarautz KE Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Otxoa A.
45' Event
Urain I.
90' Event
Segura E.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 game between Anorga and Zarautz KE finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Anorga.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Anorga
20%
Draws
29%
Zarautz KE
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Anorga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Anorga come out ahead of Zarautz KE on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Anorga's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Anorga Clean Sheet 68%
Zarautz KE Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Anorga Zarautz KE
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 7
Draws 3 5
Losses 16 18
Goals Scored 1.17 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.73 1.77
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 14, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Anorga vs Zarautz KE
3:0
Oct 4, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Zarautz KE vs Anorga
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Anorga Compare

Top Goalscorer Otxoa A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Urain I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Zarautz KE Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Anorga 50 / 100
Zarautz KE 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Anorga Zarautz KE

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Anorga Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Zarautz KE's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Anorga went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Zarautz KE's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Anorga VS Zarautz KE
1.5 Goals Scored 1
1.75 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Anorga

(Home)
09 May
Anorga
1 : 2
Real Sociedad C
03 May
Pasaia
0 : 1
Anorga
26 Apr
Anorga
2 : 2
Lagun Onak
18 Apr
SD Deusto
3 : 0
Anorga
11 Apr
Anorga
4 : 1
Portugalete
Page 1 of 6

Zarautz KE

(Away)
09 May
Zarautz KE
0 : 1
Derio
03 May
Zamudio
0 : 2
Zarautz KE
25 Apr
Touring KE
2 : 2
Zarautz KE
19 Apr
Zarautz KE
0 : 1
Santurtzi
11 Apr
Alaves C
5 : 1
Zarautz KE
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugalete 34 24 6 4 70:29 78
2 Leioa 34 18 7 9 50:34 61
3 Derio 34 17 7 10 54:40 58
4 Lagun Onak 34 17 6 11 54:34 57
5 Touring KE 34 16 9 9 47:35 57
6 Real Sociedad C 34 17 4 13 48:39 55
7 San Ignacio 34 16 7 11 37:27 55
8 Aurrera de Vitoria 34 16 6 12 42:41 54
9 Alaves C 34 15 8 11 57:40 53
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 13 6 15 56:61 45
11 SCD Durango 34 11 11 12 35:36 44
12 Santurtzi 34 9 12 13 32:45 39
13 Eibar C 34 9 9 16 44:53 36
14 Pasaia 34 9 9 16 26:46 36
15 Anorga 34 11 4 19 37:59 34
16 Zamudio 34 9 6 19 42:59 33
17 Zarautz KE 34 8 6 20 30:60 30
18 SD Deusto 34 6 7 21 26:49 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)