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Antigua and Barbuda vs Anguilla - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, St. John's
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Douglas C.
Assist: Pereira D.
16' Event
Pereira D.
Assist: Bramble T. J. E.
21' Event
Douglas C.
Assist: Griffith Q.

AI Match Summary

The CONCACAF Nations League game between Antigua and Barbuda and Anguilla finished 5-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Antigua and Barbuda.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Antigua and Barbuda
15%
Draws
0%
Anguilla
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Antigua and Barbuda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Anguilla haven't matched Antigua and Barbuda's recent run of results.
  • Antigua and Barbuda are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular CONCACAF Nations League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Antigua and Barbuda have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Antigua and Barbuda Clean Sheet 68%
Anguilla Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Antigua and Barbuda Anguilla
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 7 6
Draws 4 4
Losses 19 22
Goals Scored 0.97 0.69
Goals Conceded 2.13 2.59
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 1, 2026 CONCACAF Nations League
Anguilla vs Antigua and Barbuda
0:3
Sep 26, 2026 CONCACAF Nations League
Antigua and Barbuda vs Anguilla
5:0
Sep 3, 2014 Caribbean Cup
Antigua and Barbuda vs Anguilla
6:0
Sep 20, 2006 Caribbean Cup
Antigua and Barbuda vs Anguilla
5:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Antigua and Barbuda Compare

Top Goalscorer Douglas C.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Pereira D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Anguilla Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Antigua and Barbuda 95 / 100
Anguilla 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Antigua and Barbuda Anguilla

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Antigua and Barbuda Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Anguilla conceded in 88% of 32 recent games.

Historical meetings average 5.50 goals per match.

Anguilla's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Antigua and Barbuda went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Antigua and Barbuda VS Anguilla
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.75
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Antigua and Barbuda

(Home)
06 Oct
Antigua and Barbuda
3 : 2
Aruba
01 Oct
Anguilla
0 : 3
Antigua and Barbuda
26 Sept
Antigua and Barbuda
5 : 0
Anguilla
23 Sept
Aruba
1 : 0
Antigua and Barbuda
18 Nov
Antigua and Barbuda
1 : 4
Guyana
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Anguilla

(Away)
04 Oct
Aruba
3 : 2
Anguilla
01 Oct
Anguilla
0 : 3
Antigua and Barbuda
29 Sept
Anguilla
0 : 2
Aruba
26 Sept
Antigua and Barbuda
5 : 0
Anguilla
21 Sept
Dominica
1 : 0
Anguilla
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