Sport Picks

North & Central America

CONCACAF Series Sir Vivian Richards Stadium

Aruba

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Antigua and Barbuda play Aruba in the CONCACAF Series. It looks like a close match. Recently, Antigua and Barbuda averaged 0.8 goals scored and 2.37 conceded. Aruba averaged 1.47 goals scored and 2.23 conceded. In past meetings, Antigua and Barbuda won 4, Aruba won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Nov 12, 2025 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.63 for Antigua and Barbuda and 1.75 for Aruba. This points to a Aruba double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Antigua and Barbuda

16%

Draws

44%

Aruba

Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Aruba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Antigua and Barbuda picked up more points recently compared to Aruba.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.63 vs 1.75 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 65%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 77%

Over 2.5 Goals 65%

Over 3.5 Goals 39%

Over 4.5 Goals 20%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%

Antigua and Barbuda Clean Sheet 12%

Aruba Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 69%

Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Antigua and Barbuda	Aruba
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	6	10
Draws	5	4
Losses	19	16
Goals Scored	0.8	1.47
Goals Conceded	2.37	2.23
Expected Goals (xG)	0.25	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.38	3.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 12, 2025 CONCACAF Series

Antigua and Barbuda vs Aruba

Possession: 53% - 47% Cards: 1 - 3

0:0

Nov 18, 2019 CONCACAF Nations League

Aruba vs Antigua and Barbuda

Possession: 44% - 50% Cards: 1 - 3

2:3

Sep 9, 2019 CONCACAF Nations League

Antigua and Barbuda vs Aruba

Possession: 41% - 41% Cards: 1 - 2

2:1

Mar 23, 2016 Caribbean Cup

Antigua and Barbuda vs Aruba

Possession: 50% - 51% Cards: 1 - 1

2:1

Mar 26, 2008 World Championship

Antigua and Barbuda vs Aruba

Possession: 44% - 58% Cards: 3 - 1

1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Antigua and Barbuda 38 / 100

Aruba 42 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Antigua and Barbuda Aruba

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Aruba or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +25.2%

3.13

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +9.9%

1.69

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Antigua and Barbuda attacking → ← attacking Aruba

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Antigua and Barbuda scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

Aruba let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Antigua and Barbuda went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Aruba lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

23 Points in last 5 34

0.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.13

2.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 3.00