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Antigua vs Marathon

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Central American Cup Estadio Pensativo, Antigua Guatemala
Fri, Aug 14, 2026
VS
02:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the CONCACAF Central American Cup. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Antigua have averaged 1.38 scored and 1.25 conceded recently, against Marathon's 0.75 scored and 0.88 conceded. Head-to-head, Antigua have won 0 to Marathon's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on Nov 4, 2020, ending 2:1. xG projections (1.13 - 1.00) back Antigua to edge this. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Antigua
39%
Draws
31%
Marathon
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Antigua carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Antigua have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Antigua Clean Sheet 20%
Marathon Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Antigua Marathon
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 12 9
Draws 7 9
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.38 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 4, 2020 CONCACAF League
Marathon vs Antigua
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Antigua 31 / 100
Marathon 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Antigua Marathon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ANT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Antigua found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).

Defensive concern: Marathon conceded in 61% of 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Antigua stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Antigua VS Marathon
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Antigua

(Home)
30 Jul
Alianza FC
2 : 1
Antigua
25 Jul
Antigua
3 : 1
Marquense
03 May
Comunicaciones
2 : 0
Antigua
30 Apr
Antigua
3 : 2
Comunicaciones
26 Apr
Deportivo Achuapa
2 : 2
Antigua
Page 1 of 6

Marathon

(Away)
31 Jul
Herediano
0 : 0
Marathon
24 May
Motagua
1 : 0
Marathon
22 May
Marathon
1 : 1
Motagua
19 May
Real Espana
1 : 1
Marathon
16 May
Marathon
1 : 0
Olimpia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Diriangen 1 1 0 0 4:2 3
2 Alajuelense 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
3 Luis Angel Firpo 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Xelaju 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
5 Plaza Amador 1 0 0 1 2:4 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alianza FC 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
2 Herediano 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
3 Marathon 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
4 Esteli 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Antigua 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Olimpia 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
2 Saprissa 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
3 Alianza 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 UMECIT 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
5 Deportivo Mixco 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Motagua 1 1 0 0 5:0 3
2 Municipal 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
3 Cartagines 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
4 FAS 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Verdes 1 0 0 1 0:5 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)