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Apafut vs EC Guarani

Brazil Brazil

Gaucho 3 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

59'
Gabryel
59'
Gabryel

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-0. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Apafut
35%
Draws
25%
EC Guarani
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Apafut

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • EC Guarani carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Apafut taking it.
  • EC Guarani arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor EC Guarani, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • EC Guarani have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Apafut Clean Sheet 20%
EC Guarani Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Apafut EC Guarani
Matches Played 25 28
Wins 7 15
Draws 9 7
Losses 9 6
Goals Scored 1.24 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.16 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 7, 2025 Gaucho 3
EC Guarani vs Apafut
3:1
Dec 4, 2025 Gaucho 3
Apafut vs EC Guarani
0:0
Nov 9, 2025 Gaucho 3
EC Guarani vs Apafut
4:2
Oct 5, 2025 Gaucho 3
Apafut vs EC Guarani
1:2
Oct 16, 2024 Gaucho 3
Apafut vs EC Guarani
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Apafut 58 / 100
EC Guarani 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Apafut EC Guarani

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Apafut Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Apafut scored in 68% of their last 25 games.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Apafut stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: EC Guarani conceded in 46% of 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Apafut VS EC Guarani
1 Goals Scored 1.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Apafut

(Home)
23 Aug
Gramadense
0 : 0
Apafut
19 Aug
Apafut
1 : 2
Veranopolis
15 Aug
GE Gloria
1 : 1
Apafut
12 Aug
GE Bage
0 : 3
Apafut
09 Aug
Apafut
1 : 0
SC Gaucho
Page 1 of 5

EC Guarani

(Away)
23 Aug
Brasil de Farroupilha
3 : 3
EC Guarani
16 Aug
EC Guarani
1 : 3
SC Gaucho
12 Aug
GE Gloria
1 : 2
EC Guarani
09 Aug
EC Guarani
0 : 0
Veranopolis
06 Aug
EC Guarani
0 : 2
Brasil de Pelotas
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
EC Guarani 6
SC Rio Grande 0
SC Sao Paulo 1
Apafut 2
Final
EC Guarani 3
Apafut 1