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Apafut vs SC Sao Paulo

Brazil Brazil

Gaucho 3 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

66'
Foiatto E.
66'
Foiatto E.
71' Event
Peixoto

AI Match Summary

Apafut in this Gaucho 3 2025 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Apafut
20%
Draws
42%
SC Sao Paulo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: SC Sao Paulo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Apafut have won more games recently than SC Sao Paulo.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Apafut have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Apafut, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 15%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Apafut Clean Sheet 20%
SC Sao Paulo Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Apafut SC Sao Paulo
Matches Played 29 25
Wins 11 10
Draws 10 5
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.41 1.32
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.04
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 30, 2025 Gaucho 3
SC Sao Paulo vs Apafut
1:1
Nov 23, 2025 Gaucho 3
Apafut vs SC Sao Paulo
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Apafut Compare

Top Goalscorer Peixoto
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

SC Sao Paulo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.58

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Apafut 32 / 100
SC Sao Paulo 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Apafut SC Sao Paulo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Apafut scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: SC Sao Paulo conceded in 68% of 25 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.50 goals per match.

Apafut went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Apafut VS SC Sao Paulo
1.5 Goals Scored 1.33
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.83
75% Over 1.5 67%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Apafut

(Home)
27 Sept
Apafut
2 : 1
Lajeadense
23 Sept
Santa Cruz RS
2 : 2
Apafut
19 Sept
Apafut
1 : 1
Uniao Frederiquense De Futebol
16 Sept
Apafut
2 : 1
Pelotas
13 Sept
Brasil de Farroupilha
1 : 0
Apafut
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SC Sao Paulo

(Away)
30 Sept
SC Sao Paulo
3 : 1
Riograndense
27 Sept
Panambi
1 : 0
SC Sao Paulo
20 Sept
SC Sao Paulo
2 : 1
Farroupilha
13 Sept
SC Rio Grande
0 : 2
SC Sao Paulo
06 Sept
SC Sao Paulo
1 : 2
Cruz Alta
Page 1 of 5

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
EC Guarani 6
SC Rio Grande 0
SC Sao Paulo 1
Apafut 2
Final
EC Guarani 3
Apafut 1