Sport Picks

Stadium Background

APR vs Mahia

Africa Africa

CECAFA Kagame Cup
0 - 5
FT
Our Tip

Match Events

33' Event
Kibwage M.
35' Event
Ekandjoum P.
73' Event
Ochuoga P.

AI Match Summary

Mahia in this CECAFA Kagame Cup tie, finishing 0-5. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
APR
39%
Draws
30%
Mahia
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • APR have won more games recently than Mahia.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • APR have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor APR, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
APR Clean Sheet 19%
Mahia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric APR Mahia
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 18 16
Draws 6 8
Losses 5 5
Goals Scored 2 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 24, 2026 CECAFA Kagame Cup
APR vs Mahia
0:5
Dec 5, 2020 CAF Champions League
Mahia vs APR
3:1
Nov 28, 2020 CAF Champions League
APR vs Mahia
2:1
Aug 15, 2014 CECAFA Kagame Cup
APR vs Mahia
2:2
Feb 15, 2009 CAF Confederation Cup
APR vs Mahia
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

APR Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Mahia Compare

Top Goalscorer Kibwage M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ekandjoum P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

APR 32 / 100
Mahia 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
APR Mahia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GOR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

APR found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: APR stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Mahia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

APR VS Mahia
2 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.5
100% Over 1.5 38%
88% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

APR

(Home)
27 Jul
Garde Republicaine
1 : 3
APR
24 Jul
APR
0 : 5
Mahia
31 May
APR
2 : 0
Gicumbi
27 May
Al-Merreikh
1 : 2
APR
23 May
APR
2 : 1
Rayon Sport
Page 1 of 6

Mahia

(Away)
27 Jul
Mahia
0 : 1
Vipers
24 Jul
APR
0 : 5
Mahia
31 May
Mahia
0 : 1
Nairobi United
27 May
Mara Sugar
0 : 0
Mahia
17 May
Muranga
1 : 3
Mahia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vipers22004:06
2Mahia21015:13
3APR21013:63
4Garde Republicaine20021:60
Promotion - CECAFA Kagame Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Jamus21102:04
2Singida Black Stars21014:33
3Simba20200:02
4Mogadishu City20111:41
Promotion - CECAFA Kagame Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 3)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al-Hilal Omdurman22006:06
2Rayon Sport22003:06
3Tusker20020:30
4KVZ20020:60
Promotion - CECAFA Kagame Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams