Sport Picks
Match Events
33'
33'
Kibwage M.
35'
35'
Ekandjoum P.
73'
73'
Ochuoga P.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 0-5. This leg finished 0-5.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
68%
15%
17%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: APR
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
68%
/ High Confidence
- APR have won more games recently than Mahia.
- Win probability leans APR's way, sitting at 90%.
- APR have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor APR, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 53.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
APR Clean Sheet 68%
Mahia Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | APR | Mahia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 24 |
| Wins | 17 | 12 |
| Draws | 5 | 5 |
| Losses | 6 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.79 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.14 | 0.96 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.42 | 0.67 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 24, 2026 CECAFA Kagame Cup
APR vs Mahia
0:5
Dec 5, 2020 CAF Champions League
Mahia vs APR
3:1
Nov 28, 2020 CAF Champions League
APR vs Mahia
2:1
Aug 15, 2014 CECAFA Kagame Cup
APR vs Mahia
2:2
Feb 15, 2009 CAF Confederation Cup
APR vs Mahia
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
APR Compare
Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.71
Mahia Compare
Top Goalscorer Kibwage M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Ekandjoum P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.61
Avg xA / game 0.37
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
APR 95 / 100
Mahia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
APR Mahia
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick APR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
APR found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).
H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.
Mahia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 24 matches.
Recent resilience: APR stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
APR VS Mahia
1.71 Goals Scored 0.63
0.71 Goals Conceded 1.13
57% Over 1.5 50%
57% Over 2.5 38%
29% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
APR
(Home) 16 Sept
APR
4 : 2 Marines
11 Sept
APR
3 : 0 Aigles du Congo
06 Sept
Aigles du Congo
1 : 0 APR
30 Jul
APR
2 : 1 Vipers
27 Jul
Garde Republicaine
1 : 3 APR
Page 1 of 6
16 Sept
APR
4 : 2 Marines
11 Sept
APR
3 : 0 Aigles du Congo
30 Jul
APR
2 : 1 Vipers
24 Jul
APR
0 : 5 Mahia
31 May
APR
2 : 0 Gicumbi
Page 1 of 4
Mahia
(Away) 13 Sept
Pyramids
5 : 1 Mahia
06 Sept
Mahia
0 : 2 Pyramids
23 Aug
Mahia
1 : 3 Tusker
07 Aug
Rayon Sport
2 : 1 Mahia
04 Aug
Mahia
2 : 1 Al-Hilal Omdurman
Page 1 of 5
13 Sept
Pyramids
5 : 1 Mahia
07 Aug
Rayon Sport
2 : 1 Mahia
24 Jul
APR
0 : 5 Mahia
27 May
Mara Sugar
0 : 0 Mahia
17 May
Muranga
1 : 3 Mahia
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mahia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:1 | 6 |
| 2 | Vipers | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 3 | APR | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:7 | 6 |
| 4 | Garde Republicaine | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:7 | 0 |
Promotion - CECAFA Kagame Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:1 | 7 |
| 2 | Simba | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:1 | 5 |
| 3 | Singida Black Stars | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 4 | Mogadishu City | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:6 | 1 |
Promotion - CECAFA Kagame Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rayon Sport | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 9 |
| 2 | Al-Hilal Omdurman | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:1 | 6 |
| 3 | Tusker | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 4 | KVZ | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0:8 | 0 |
Promotion - CECAFA Kagame Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams
