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Aquila Calcio vs Santegidiese - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Aquila Calcio host Santegidiese in the Serie D - Group F. This one's hard to separate. Santegidiese have shipped 1.86 goals a game lately, while Aquila Calcio have conceded 1.03 and scored 1.52. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. xG projections (1.00 - 0.74) back Aquila Calcio to edge this. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Aquila Calcio
35%
Draws
20%
Santegidiese
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Aquila Calcio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Aquila Calcio have won more games recently than Santegidiese.
  • Win probability leans Aquila Calcio's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Aquila Calcio Clean Sheet 20%
Santegidiese Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aquila Calcio Santegidiese
Matches Played 29 7
Wins 12 2
Draws 9 2
Losses 8 3
Goals Scored 1.52 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.74
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aquila Calcio 85 / 100
Santegidiese 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aquila Calcio Santegidiese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aquila Calcio Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santegidiese has conceded goals in 86% of their last 7 outings.

Aquila Calcio has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Aquila Calcio found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Away concern: Santegidiese has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Aquila Calcio VS Santegidiese
1 Goals Scored 0.86
0.63 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 57%
25% Over 2.5 29%
13% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Aquila Calcio

(Home)
07 Oct
Aquila Calcio
5 : 2
Termoli
04 Oct
Pietralunga
0 : 3
Aquila Calcio
27 Sept
Aquila Calcio
2 : 0
Teramo
20 Sept
Ancona
2 : 2
Aquila Calcio
16 Sept
Aquila Calcio
0 : 0
Atletico Ascoli
Page 1 of 6

Santegidiese

(Away)
04 Oct
Santegidiese
1 : 3
Giulianova
27 Sept
Maceratese
1 : 1
Santegidiese
20 Sept
Santegidiese
1 : 0
Angelana
16 Sept
Notaresco Calcio
1 : 0
Santegidiese
12 Sept
Santegidiese
1 : 1
Recanatese
Page 1 of 2

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Aquila Calcio 6 4 2 0 12:2 14
2 Teramo 6 4 1 1 17:11 13
3 Vigor Senigallia 6 4 1 1 14:10 13
4 Foligno 6 4 1 1 7:6 13
5 Ancona 6 3 2 1 8:5 11
6 Fossombrone 6 3 1 2 6:9 10
7 Notaresco Calcio 6 2 2 2 6:6 8
8 Montecchio Gallo 6 2 2 2 5:5 8
9 Santegidiese 6 2 2 2 6:7 8
10 Giulianova 6 2 1 3 10:9 7
11 Lanciano FC 6 2 1 3 10:9 7
12 Termoli 6 2 1 3 4:5 7
13 Maceratese 6 2 1 3 7:9 7
14 Atletico Ascoli 6 2 1 3 6:8 7
15 Recanatese 6 1 3 2 8:9 6
16 Angelana 6 1 1 4 4:8 4
17 Sporting Trestina 6 1 1 4 4:9 4
18 Pietralunga 6 0 2 4 2:9 2
Promotion - Serie D - Group F (Play Offs)