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Araguacema vs Nova Conquista

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Tocantinense 2022
Araguacema Logo

Araguacema

3 - 1
FT
Nova Conquista Logo

Nova Conquista

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Araguacema in this Campeonato Tocantinense 2022 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Araguacema.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Araguacema
15%
Draws
26%
Nova Conquista
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Araguacema

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Nova Conquista haven't matched Araguacema's recent run of results.
  • Araguacema are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Araguacema Clean Sheet 18%
Nova Conquista Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Araguacema Nova Conquista
Matches Played 31 23
Wins 11 5
Draws 7 9
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 1.42 1.09
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 12, 2022 Tocantinense
Araguacema vs Nova Conquista
3:1
Mar 3, 2021 Tocantinense
Araguacema vs Nova Conquista
1:1
Mar 1, 2020 Tocantinense
Araguacema vs Nova Conquista
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Araguacema 85 / 100
Nova Conquista 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Araguacema Nova Conquista

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Araguacema Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Araguacema scored in 68% of their last 31 games.

Defensive concern: Nova Conquista conceded in 74% of 23 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Araguacema went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Araguacema VS Nova Conquista
0.88 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.71
75% Over 1.5 71%
50% Over 2.5 57%
25% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

Araguacema

(Home)
23 Nov
Batalhao
4 : 1
Araguacema
16 Nov
Araguacema
3 : 1
Batalhao
09 Nov
Araguacema
1 : 1
SD Sparta
02 Nov
Arsenal (TO)
0 : 2
Araguacema
26 Oct
Araguacema
0 : 3
Bela Vista-TO
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Nova Conquista

(Away)
12 Mar
Araguacema
3 : 1
Nova Conquista
06 Mar
Nova Conquista
2 : 3
Tocantinopolis
02 Mar
Nova Conquista
0 : 1
Capital FC
26 Feb
Tocantins
0 : 2
Nova Conquista
19 Feb
Interporto
3 : 0
Nova Conquista
Page 1 of 5

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tocantinopolis 9 7 1 1 28:8 22
2 Capital FC 9 6 2 1 16:6 20
3 Interporto 9 5 4 0 16:5 19
4 Uniao Carmolandense 9 5 3 1 11:8 18
5 Bela Vista-TO 9 3 3 3 12:10 12
6 Palmas 9 2 3 4 16:11 9
7 Nova Conquista 9 2 3 4 11:14 9
8 Araguacema 9 2 2 5 12:14 8
9 Gurupi 9 1 2 6 8:17 5
10 Tocantins 9 0 1 8 4:41 1
Promotion - Campeonato Tocantinense 2022 (Play Offs)