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Araguaina vs Capital FC

Brazil Brazil

Tocantinense 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Araguaina play Capital FC in the Tocantinense 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Araguaina averaged 1.7 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. Capital FC averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. In past meetings, Araguaina won 1, Capital FC won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 17, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.69 for Araguaina and 1.04 for Capital FC. This points to a Araguaina double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Araguaina
20%
Draws
34%
Capital FC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Araguaina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Araguaina picked up more points recently compared to Capital FC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.69 vs 1.04 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 51%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
Araguaina Clean Sheet 22%
Capital FC Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 65%
Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Araguaina Capital FC
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 9
Draws 8 5
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 1.7 1.03
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.33
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 17, 2026 Tocantinense
Capital FC vs Araguaina
1:1
Mar 23, 2025 Tocantinense
Capital FC vs Araguaina
0:3
Mar 18, 2025 Tocantinense
Araguaina vs Capital FC
1:2
Mar 15, 2025 Tocantinense
Capital FC vs Araguaina
1:0
Jan 30, 2024 Tocantinense
Araguaina vs Capital FC
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Araguaina Compare

Top Goalscorer Gabriel
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Capital FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Cairo Muniz
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lima J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.21
Avg xA / game 0.74

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Araguaina 46 / 100
Capital FC 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Araguaina Capital FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Araguaina or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21%
2.63
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.2%
2.22
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Araguaina attacking → ← attacking Capital FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Araguaina scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Capital FC let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Araguaina went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Capital FC lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

41 Points in last 5 32
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.33
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.00