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Araguaina vs Gurupi

Brazil Brazil

Tocantinense
Our Tip

Match Events

60' Event
Junior A.
82' Event
Junior A.

AI Match Summary

Araguaina in this Tocantinense matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Araguaina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Araguaina
28%
Draws
22%
Gurupi
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Araguaina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Araguaina have won more games recently than Gurupi.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on Araguaina taking it.
  • Regular Tocantinense form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Araguaina Clean Sheet 68%
Gurupi Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Araguaina Gurupi
Matches Played 34 33
Wins 14 11
Draws 9 13
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1.38 1
Goals Conceded 0.75 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 24, 2026 Tocantinense
Araguaina vs Gurupi
2:0
Feb 22, 2025 Tocantinense
Gurupi vs Araguaina
1:1
Feb 20, 2024 Tocantinense
Araguaina vs Gurupi
2:1
May 26, 2018 Tocantinense
Gurupi vs Araguaina
0:0
Apr 14, 2018 Tocantinense
Araguaina vs Gurupi
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Araguaina Compare

Top Goalscorer Junior A.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Gurupi Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Araguaina 59 / 100
Gurupi 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Araguaina Gurupi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ARA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Araguaina scored in 71% of their last 34 games.

Defensive concern: Gurupi conceded in 64% of 33 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Araguaina stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Araguaina VS Gurupi
1.38 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 67%
38% Over 2.5 33%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Araguaina

(Home)
28 Jun
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
0 : 0
Araguaina
21 Jun
Araguaina
0 : 1
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
14 Jun
Araguaina
9 : 0
Galvez
30 May
Guapore
3 : 2
Araguaina
24 May
Araguaina
1 : 1
Porto Velho
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Gurupi

(Away)
21 Mar
Uniao Carmolandense
1 : 1
Gurupi
14 Mar
Gurupi
1 : 2
Uniao Carmolandense
07 Mar
Guarai SC
0 : 1
Gurupi
21 Feb
Gurupi
0 : 2
Tocantinopolis
14 Feb
Gurupi
5 : 0
Bela Vista-TO
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Tocantinopolis761010:119
2Uniao Carmolandense741212:513
3Gurupi741210:613
4Capital FC723210:99
5Araguaina72237:78
6Bela Vista-TO72238:148
7Palmas71244:105
8Guarai SC70253:122
Promotion - Tocantinense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Tocantinense 2 2027 (Main)