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Araguari vs Nacional Uberaba

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 3 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Sebastiani F.
79' Event
Rodrigues C.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

Nacional Uberaba in this Mineiro 3 2024 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nacional Uberaba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Araguari
20%
Draws
80%
Nacional Uberaba
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Nacional Uberaba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Nacional Uberaba have won more games recently than Araguari.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Nacional Uberaba taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Araguari Clean Sheet 10%
Nacional Uberaba Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Araguari Nacional Uberaba
Matches Played 16 27
Wins 0 9
Draws 2 6
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 0.19 1.3
Goals Conceded 3.94 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 2.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 5, 2024 Mineiro 3
Nacional Uberaba vs Araguari
4:0
Sep 14, 2024 Mineiro 3
Araguari vs Nacional Uberaba
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Araguari Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Nacional Uberaba Compare

Top Goalscorer Sebastiani F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.1
Avg xA / game 1.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Araguari 10 / 100
Nacional Uberaba 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Araguari Nacional Uberaba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nacional Uberaba Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nacional Uberaba has conceded goals in 67% of their last 27 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Araguari scored in 19% of their last 16 games.

Away concern: Nacional Uberaba has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Araguari VS Nacional Uberaba
0.13 Goals Scored 1.75
2.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Araguari

(Home)
19 Oct
Paracatu
5 : 0
Araguari
12 Oct
Araguari
0 : 7
Essube
05 Oct
Nacional Uberaba
4 : 0
Araguari
28 Sept
Uberaba
2 : 1
Araguari
21 Sept
Araguari
0 : 6
Uberaba
Page 1 of 4

Nacional Uberaba

(Away)
11 Oct
Juventus Minasnovense
2 : 2
Nacional Uberaba
06 Oct
Nacional Uberaba
1 : 0
Passos
20 Sept
Essube
3 : 1
Nacional Uberaba
07 Sept
Boa
2 : 0
Nacional Uberaba
01 Sept
Nacional Uberaba
1 : 1
Paracatu
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Coimbra Esporte Clube 8 6 2 0 21:7 20
2 Contagem 8 4 3 1 14:6 15
3 America TO 8 4 1 3 9:6 13
4 Boston City 8 1 2 5 5:18 5
5 Social 8 0 2 6 3:15 2
Promotion - Mineiro 3 2024 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Guarani-MG 10 9 0 1 21:4 27
2 Tupynambas 10 7 0 3 29:8 21
3 Inter de Minas 10 4 3 3 19:17 15
4 Villa Real 10 4 1 5 15:20 13
5 Pocos de Caldas 10 2 2 6 12:20 8
6 Tres Coracoes 10 1 0 9 5:32 3
Promotion - Mineiro 3 2024 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Essube 8 5 1 2 20:10 16
2 Uberaba 8 5 1 2 18:11 16
3 Paracatu 8 4 2 2 18:6 14
4 Nacional Uberaba 8 4 0 4 17:14 12
5 Araguari 8 0 0 8 1:33 0
6 Araxa 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Mineiro 3 2024 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams