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Aral vs Metallurg Bekabad - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uzbekistan Uzbekistan

Pro Liga
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Kalmagambetov R.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Pro Liga game between Aral and Metallurg Bekabad finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aral.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Aral
15%
Draws
46%
Metallurg Bekabad
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Metallurg Bekabad

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Aral carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Pro Liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Aral Clean Sheet 18%
Metallurg Bekabad Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aral Metallurg Bekabad
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 19 16
Draws 6 7
Losses 4 6
Goals Scored 1.86 1.97
Goals Conceded 0.72 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 5, 2026 Pro Liga
Aral vs Metallurg Bekabad
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aral 32 / 100
Metallurg Bekabad 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aral Metallurg Bekabad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aral found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (29 games).

Aral went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Metallurg Bekabad's defensive record shows goals conceded in 62% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Aral VS Metallurg Bekabad
1.63 Goals Scored 2
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Aral

(Home)
08 Oct
Aral
3 : 0
TerDU
21 Sept
Yaypan
2 : 5
Aral
13 Sept
Aral
2 : 0
FC Lochin
07 Sept
FarDU
1 : 1
Aral
27 Aug
Aral
1 : 0
Kattaqurgon
Page 1 of 6

Metallurg Bekabad

(Away)
08 Oct
Kattaqurgon
0 : 3
Metallurg Bekabad
20 Sept
Metallurg Bekabad
1 : 0
Jayxun
07 Sept
Metallurg Bekabad
1 : 0
Pakhtakor II
02 Sept
Olimpik-Mobiuz
2 : 3
Metallurg Bekabad
27 Aug
BuxDu
0 : 4
Metallurg Bekabad
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Aral 21 16 4 1 45:13 52
2 Shortan Guzor 21 14 3 4 38:20 45
3 Metallurg Bekabad 21 13 4 4 49:16 43
4 FarDU 21 11 7 3 39:29 40
5 FC Lochin 21 10 5 6 32:25 35
6 Gazalkent 21 10 5 6 39:25 35
7 Kattaqurgon 20 10 3 7 24:20 33
8 Olimpik-Mobiuz 19 9 5 5 36:22 32
9 Respublika FA 20 7 4 9 27:30 25
10 Jayxun 21 7 3 11 23:28 24
11 Yaypan 21 6 4 11 24:39 22
12 BuxDu 21 3 1 17 18:54 10
13 Pakhtakor II 21 3 1 17 15:49 10
14 TerDU 21 1 1 19 12:51 4
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