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Ararat-Armenia vs Ararat Yerevan

Armenia Armenia

Premier League 2025/2026 Football Academy Stadium, Yerevan
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Serobyan A.
28' Event
Serobyan A.
45'
Balanta J. A.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Ararat-Armenia and Ararat Yerevan finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ararat-Armenia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Ararat-Armenia
6%
Draws
4%
Ararat Yerevan
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Ararat-Armenia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ararat-Armenia come out ahead of Ararat Yerevan on wins alone.
  • Ararat-Armenia are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Ararat-Armenia have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Ararat-Armenia Clean Sheet 68%
Ararat Yerevan Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ararat-Armenia Ararat Yerevan
Matches Played 35 31
Wins 21 8
Draws 7 6
Losses 7 17
Goals Scored 1.5 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.88 2.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Premier League
Ararat-Armenia vs Ararat Yerevan
4:0
Nov 21, 2025 Premier League
Ararat Yerevan vs Ararat-Armenia
1:2
Aug 30, 2025 Premier League
Ararat-Armenia vs Ararat Yerevan
4:2
May 28, 2025 Premier League
Ararat-Armenia vs Ararat Yerevan
6:0
Nov 10, 2024 Premier League
Ararat Yerevan vs Ararat-Armenia
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ararat-Armenia Compare

Top Goalscorer Serobyan A.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Ndour A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Ararat Yerevan Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ararat-Armenia 95 / 100
Ararat Yerevan 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ararat-Armenia Ararat Yerevan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ARA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Ararat Yerevan conceded in 84% of 31 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Ararat-Armenia scored in 66% of their last 35 outings.

Recent resilience: Ararat-Armenia stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ararat-Armenia VS Ararat Yerevan
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ararat-Armenia

(Home)
21 Jul
Ararat-Armenia
2 : 0
Shamrock Rovers
14 Jul
Riga FC
3 : 2
Ararat-Armenia
07 Jul
Ararat-Armenia
2 : 0
Riga FC
27 Jun
Ararat-Armenia
1 : 1
Vojvodina
20 Jun
Ararat-Armenia
1 : 1
Mura
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Ararat Yerevan

(Away)
19 Jul
Ararat Yerevan
2 : 1
Andranik
19 Jul
Ararat Yerevan
1 : 1
Sardarapat
11 Jul
Ararat Yerevan
2 : 2
Van
26 May
Ararat Yerevan
1 : 1
BKMA
19 May
Noah
8 : 3
Ararat Yerevan
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Ararat-Armenia27186350:2560
2Noah27168361:1956
3Pyunik Yerevan27174637:1855
4Alashkert27165642:2353
5Urartu27147643:2649
6Van27941427:4031
7BKMA274111230:4223
8FC Gandzasar27561620:4121
9Ararat Yerevan27342021:6313
10Shirak Gyumri27271817:5113
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - First League (Main)