Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Araucaria vs Parana

Brazil Brazil

Paranaense 2
Our Tip

Match Events

74' Event
Samuel
90' Event
Gustavo Sagui

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 0-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Araucaria
20%
Draws
38%
Parana
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Araucaria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Araucaria haven't matched Parana's recent run of results.
  • Araucaria are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Parana arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Parana, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Parana have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Araucaria Clean Sheet 10%
Parana Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Araucaria Parana
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 10 15
Draws 8 10
Losses 12 6
Goals Scored 1.5 1.26
Goals Conceded 1.4 0.77
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Paranaense 2
Parana vs Araucaria
2:1
May 17, 2026 Paranaense 2
Araucaria vs Parana
0:2
Apr 17, 2026 Paranaense 2
Araucaria vs Parana
0:1
Jun 16, 2023 Paranaense 2
Parana vs Araucaria
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Araucaria Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Parana Compare

Top Goalscorer Samuel
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gustavo Sagui
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Araucaria 40 / 100
Parana 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Araucaria Parana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Araucaria found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

These sides typically produce 2.25 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Araucaria stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Parana's defensive record shows goals conceded in 55% of 31 matches.

Scoring Trends

Araucaria VS Parana
1.25 Goals Scored 2.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.5
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Araucaria

(Home)
23 May
Parana
2 : 1
Araucaria
17 May
Araucaria
0 : 2
Parana
11 May
Araucaria
1 : 0
Rio Branco PR
03 May
Rio Branco PR
2 : 5
Araucaria
25 Apr
Batel
0 : 1
Araucaria
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Parana

(Away)
21 Sept
Londrina B
2 : 2
Parana
13 Sept
Azuriz
0 : 0
Parana
05 Sept
Parana
2 : 1
FC Cascavel
29 Aug
Athletico-PR B
1 : 2
Parana
06 Jun
Parana
0 : 1
Paranavai-PR
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Parana 8
Toledo 1
Araucaria 6
Rio Branco PR 2
Patriotas 1
Nacional PR 0
Laranja Mecanica 1
Paranavai-PR 2
Semi-finals
Parana 4
Araucaria 1
Patriotas 2
Paranavai-PR 3
Final
Parana 1
Paranavai-PR 2