Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Araz PFK vs Turan

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League 2025/2026 SOCAR Polymer Arena, Sumqayit
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Guseynov A. In: Wadji I.
Out: Guseynov A.
46'
Wadji I.
52'
Jo Batista

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Araz PFK and Turan finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Turan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Araz PFK
20%
Draws
38%
Turan
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Araz PFK

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Turan come out ahead of Araz PFK on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Araz PFK's way, sitting at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Araz PFK Clean Sheet 16%
Turan Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Araz PFK Turan
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 10 15
Draws 6 9
Losses 14 7
Goals Scored 1 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.63 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 17, 2026 Premier League
Araz PFK vs Turan
0:3
Nov 22, 2025 Premier League
Araz PFK vs Turan
1:1
Aug 24, 2025 Premier League
Turan vs Araz PFK
1:2
Apr 18, 2025 Premier League
Araz PFK vs Turan
1:1
Feb 16, 2025 Premier League
Turan vs Araz PFK
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Araz PFK Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Turan Compare

Top Goalscorer Jo Batista
2 Goals
Assists Leader Wadji I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Araz PFK 41 / 100
Turan 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Araz PFK Turan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Araz PFK scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Araz PFK went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Difficult form: Turan registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Araz PFK VS Turan
1 Goals Scored 1.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Araz PFK

(Home)
23 May
Araz PFK
3 : 2
Zira FK
15 May
Araz PFK
2 : 0
Kapaz
09 May
SumQayit FK
2 : 1
Araz PFK
02 May
Araz PFK
0 : 1
Imisli FK
25 Apr
Gabala
1 : 1
Araz PFK
Page 1 of 6

Turan

(Away)
22 May
Turan
1 : 2
Sabah Baku
16 May
Shamakhi
3 : 2
Turan
10 May
Turan
1 : 0
Karvan
04 May
Qarabag Agdam
2 : 1
Turan
27 Apr
Turan
1 : 1
Zira FK
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Sabah Baku33246375:2578
2Qarabag Agdam33216671:2769
3Turan33178844:2759
4Neftci Baku331611657:3259
5Zira FK331314643:3653
6Araz PFK331371344:5846
7SumQayit FK331251645:4941
8Shamakhi339111331:4038
9Imisli FK337131323:4334
10Kapaz33832225:6127
11Gabala33762032:4927
12Karvan33362423:6615
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - I Liqa 2026/2027 (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)