Sport Picks

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Arbroath vs Montrose

Scotland Scotland

League Cup Gayfield Park
Tue, Jul 21, 2026
VS
06:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Arbroath host Montrose in the League Cup. Little to choose between these two on current form. Arbroath have averaged 1.63 scored and 1.13 conceded recently, against Montrose's 1.5 scored and 1.13 conceded. Past meetings favor Arbroath slightly — 3-0-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 5, 2025, ending 0:1. Model xG sits at 1.38 vs 1.31, favoring Arbroath. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Arbroath
40%
Draws
29%
Montrose
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Montrose haven't matched Arbroath's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Knockout football tends to sharpen focus — no second leg to fall back on.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Arbroath Clean Sheet 18%
Montrose Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arbroath Montrose
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 10 9
Draws 9 8
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.63 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 5, 2025 League One
Montrose vs Arbroath
0:1
Dec 28, 2024 League One
Arbroath vs Montrose
3:0
Nov 9, 2024 League One
Montrose vs Arbroath
1:1
Sep 7, 2024 Challenge Cup
Arbroath vs Montrose
3:0
Aug 10, 2024 League One
Arbroath vs Montrose
0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arbroath 32 / 100
Montrose 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arbroath Montrose

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Montrose conceded in 89% of 28 recent games.

Arbroath scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Arbroath went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Arbroath VS Montrose
1.63 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

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3Montrose11001:03
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