Sport Picks
Arbroath vs Airdrieonians
Scotland
Challenge Cup 2025/2026 Gayfield Park, Arbroath 
Match Events
22'
22'
McGrattan L.
Assist: Devine A.
32'
32'
Sub
Enem V. In: Marshall F.
Out: Enem V.
35'
35'
Muirhead A.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 2-3, with Airdrieonians advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
27%
15%
58%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Airdrieonians
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
58%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Airdrieonians come out ahead of Arbroath on wins alone.
- Win probability leans Airdrieonians's way, sitting at 90%.
- Airdrieonians arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Airdrieonians, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Arbroath Clean Sheet 20%
Airdrieonians Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Arbroath | Airdrieonians |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 31 |
| Wins | 9 | 10 |
| Draws | 10 | 8 |
| Losses | 11 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 0.93 | 1.55 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 1.52 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.30 | 1.07 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 14, 2026 Championship
Airdrieonians vs Arbroath
0:0
Feb 3, 2026 Challenge Cup
Arbroath vs Airdrieonians
2:3
Jan 17, 2026 Scottish Cup
Airdrieonians vs Arbroath
4:3
Dec 27, 2025 Championship
Arbroath vs Airdrieonians
1:1
Oct 25, 2025 Championship
Airdrieonians vs Arbroath
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Arbroath Compare
Top Goalscorer Muirhead A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Robinson S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1
Avg xA / game 0.65
Airdrieonians Compare
Top Goalscorer McGrattan L.
1 Goals Assists Leader Henderson E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.97
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Arbroath 10 / 100
Airdrieonians 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Arbroath Airdrieonians
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Airdrieonians Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Airdrieonians conceded in 77% of 31 recent games.
H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.
Arbroath went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Attacking prowess: Arbroath scored in 53% of their last 30 outings.
Scoring Trends
Arbroath VS Airdrieonians
0.86 Goals Scored 1
1.14 Goals Conceded 1.75
57% Over 1.5 75%
43% Over 2.5 63%
14% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Arbroath
(Home) 25 Sept
Arbroath
2 : 1 Queen's Park
19 Sept
Stenhousemuir
1 : 0 Arbroath
12 Sept
Raith
4 : 0 Arbroath
05 Sept
Arbroath
1 : 1 Dunfermline
29 Aug
Arbroath
1 : 0 Livingston
Page 1 of 6
25 Sept
Arbroath
2 : 1 Queen's Park
05 Sept
Arbroath
1 : 1 Dunfermline
29 Aug
Arbroath
1 : 0 Livingston
08 Aug
Arbroath
0 : 0 Inverness
25 Jul
Arbroath
1 : 0 Stirling
Page 1 of 4
Airdrieonians
(Away) 26 Sept
Airdrieonians
7 : 1 Berwick
22 Sept
Bonnyrigg Rose
1 : 6 Airdrieonians
19 Sept
Peterhead
1 : 2 Airdrieonians
12 Sept
Airdrieonians
1 : 0 Alloa
08 Sept
Airdrieonians
1 : 0 St. Mirren B
Page 1 of 7
22 Sept
Bonnyrigg Rose
1 : 6 Airdrieonians
19 Sept
Peterhead
1 : 2 Airdrieonians
05 Sept
Queen of the South
2 : 1 Airdrieonians
15 Aug
Hamilton
4 : 0 Airdrieonians
11 Aug
Dumbarton
1 : 3 Airdrieonians
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Arbroath 3
Kelty Hearts 2
Elgin City 2
East Fife 3
Alloa 2
Airdrieonians 3
Montrose 2
Spartans 1
Queen's Park 2
Clyde 1
Forfar Athletic 2
Edinburgh City 1
Raith 5
Hamilton 2
Queen of the South 4
Dunfermline 3
Hearts B 0
St Johnstone 1
Ross County 4
Celtic B 0
Ayr 2
Peterhead 1
East Kilbride 1
Stranraer 4
Cove Rangers 1
Partick 2
Dumbarton 0
Inverness 9
Stirling 3
Morton 2
Stenhousemuir 2
Annan 0
1/8-finals
Arbroath 3
East Fife 0
Airdrieonians 3
Montrose 1
Queen's Park 2
Forfar Athletic 0
Raith 1
Queen of the South 0
St Johnstone 2
Ross County 0
Ayr 4
Stranraer 1
Partick 3
Inverness 4
Stirling 1
Stenhousemuir 2
Quarter-finals
Arbroath 2
Airdrieonians 3
Queen's Park 1
Raith 2
St Johnstone 3
Ayr 4
Inverness 1
Stenhousemuir 0
Semi-finals
Airdrieonians 1
Raith 2
Ayr 1
Inverness 2
Final
Raith 4
Inverness 1
