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Arbroath vs East Fife

Scotland Scotland

Challenge Cup Gayfield Park
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Arbroath play East Fife in the Challenge Cup. Arbroath are favorites here. Recently, Arbroath averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. East Fife averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.86 conceded. In past meetings, Arbroath won 5, East Fife won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jan 13, 2026 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for Arbroath and 1.06 for East Fife. This points to a Arbroath double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Arbroath
17%
Draws
23%
East Fife
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Arbroath

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

87% / Very High Confidence
  • Arbroath picked up more points recently compared to East Fife.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%
Arbroath Clean Sheet 22%
East Fife Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arbroath East Fife
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 12 6
Draws 9 5
Losses 9 18
Goals Scored 1.53 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.86
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 13, 2026 Challenge Cup
Arbroath vs East Fife
3:0
Nov 29, 2025 Scottish Cup
East Fife vs Arbroath
0:2
Sep 24, 2022 Challenge Cup
Arbroath vs East Fife
2:1
Jul 14, 2021 League Cup
Arbroath vs East Fife
2:0
Mar 16, 2019 League One
Arbroath vs East Fife
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arbroath Compare

Top Goalscorer Marshall F.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

East Fife Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arbroath 58 / 100
East Fife 24 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arbroath East Fife

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arbroath Win (1)
Secondary Pick Arbroath & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.2%
1.92
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.9%
2.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Arbroath attacking → ← attacking East Fife

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arbroath scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

East Fife let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Arbroath went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

East Fife lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 23
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13