Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Arbroath vs St Johnstone

Scotland Scotland

Championship 2025/2026 Gayfield Park, Arbroath
Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Holt J.
34' Event
Dow R.
Assist: Marshall F.
41' Event
Gullan J.
Assist: Stanton S.

AI Match Summary

St Johnstone in this Championship 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored St Johnstone.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Arbroath
6%
Draws
90%
St Johnstone
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: St Johnstone

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to St Johnstone lately — more wins on the board than Arbroath.
  • Win probability leans St Johnstone's way, sitting at 90%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Championship 2025/2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • St Johnstone have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Arbroath Clean Sheet 14%
St Johnstone Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arbroath St Johnstone
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 8 19
Draws 8 7
Losses 12 3
Goals Scored 1.63 2.13
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Championship
Arbroath vs St Johnstone
2:4
Jan 3, 2026 Championship
St Johnstone vs Arbroath
1:0
Oct 18, 2025 Championship
Arbroath vs St Johnstone
3:1
Aug 23, 2025 Championship
St Johnstone vs Arbroath
3:0
Jul 6, 2024 Club Friendly
Arbroath vs St Johnstone
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arbroath Compare

Top Goalscorer Dow R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader O'Brien T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

St Johnstone Compare

Top Goalscorer Gullan J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Smith L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arbroath 10 / 100
St Johnstone 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arbroath St Johnstone

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick JOH Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Arbroath scored in 61% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Defensive concern: St Johnstone conceded in 34% of 29 recent games.

Arbroath went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Arbroath VS St Johnstone
1.63 Goals Scored 2.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Arbroath

(Home)
21 Jul
Arbroath
0 : 2
Montrose
18 Jul
Dundee Utd
3 : 0
Arbroath
14 Jul
Arbroath
1 : 2
Hearts
11 Jul
Spartans
1 : 2
Arbroath
04 Jul
Arbroath
4 : 1
Brechin
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St Johnstone

(Away)
21 Jul
Inverness
1 : 0
St Johnstone
18 Jul
St Johnstone
3 : 0
Morton
14 Jul
Linlithgow Rose
0 : 2
St Johnstone
11 Jul
Cove Rangers
2 : 4
St Johnstone
04 Jul
Montrose
0 : 3
St Johnstone
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1St Johnstone362211367:2577
2Partick361715453:3666
3Arbroath3613131043:4152
4Dunfermline361491352:4151
5Raith361291543:4245
6Queen's Park369141335:4841
7Ayr368151338:4739
8Morton368141436:5238
9Airdrieonians368121635:4936
10Ross County368101836:5734
Promotion - Premiership (Main)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Promotion)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Promotion)
Relegation - Championship 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - League One (Main)