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Ards vs Ballinamallard

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland

NIFL Championship 2025/2026
Ards Logo

Ards

2 - 1
FT
Ballinamallard Logo

Ballinamallard

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Ards in this NIFL Championship 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ards.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Ards
30%
Draws
29%
Ballinamallard
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ards

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Ballinamallard haven't matched Ards's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Ards Clean Sheet 20%
Ballinamallard Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ards Ballinamallard
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 13 7
Draws 6 9
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 1.63 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.42
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 NIFL Championship
Ballinamallard vs Ards
0:2
Feb 28, 2026 NIFL Championship
Ards vs Ballinamallard
2:1
Oct 31, 2025 NIFL Championship
Ballinamallard vs Ards
1:0
Aug 9, 2025 NIFL Championship
Ards vs Ballinamallard
3:1
Jan 25, 2025 NIFL Championship
Ballinamallard vs Ards
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ards 31 / 100
Ballinamallard 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ards Ballinamallard

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ARD Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ards scored in 72% of their last 32 games.

Ballinamallard has conceded goals in 74% of their last 31 outings.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Ards stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ards VS Ballinamallard
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ards

(Home)
11 Aug
Ards
2 : 2
Dundela
08 Aug
Glenavon
1 : 3
Ards
28 Jul
Carrick Rangers
1 : 0
Ards
16 Jul
Bangor FC
2 : 0
Ards
25 Apr
Warrenpoint
0 : 1
Ards
Page 1 of 7

Ballinamallard

(Away)
11 Aug
Institute
1 : 2
Ballinamallard
08 Aug
Ballinamallard
0 : 1
Newry City
31 Jul
Ballinamallard
1 : 2
Bangor FC
18 Jul
Crusaders
0 : 0
Ballinamallard
11 Jul
Limavady
0 : 0
Ballinamallard
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Limavady 33 21 8 4 61:32 71
2 Annagh 33 22 5 6 54:27 71
3 Harland & Wolff 33 17 8 8 77:41 59
4 Newington FC 33 15 6 12 69:52 51
5 Loughgall 33 13 12 8 46:34 51
6 Queens University 33 12 11 10 43:42 47
7 Institute 33 13 7 13 47:43 46
8 Ards 33 12 7 14 50:46 43
9 Warrenpoint 33 10 6 17 44:50 36
10 Ballinamallard 33 8 10 15 36:52 34
11 Dundela 33 3 11 19 37:73 20
12 Armagh 33 4 5 24 28:100 17
Promotion - NIFL Championship 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - NIFL Championship 2025/2026 (Relegation Group)