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Ards vs Warrenpoint

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland

NIFL Championship 2025/2026
Ards Logo

Ards

3 - 0
FT
Warrenpoint Logo

Warrenpoint

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Ards in this NIFL Championship 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ards.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Ards
15%
Draws
26%
Warrenpoint
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ards

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Ards have won more games recently than Warrenpoint.
  • Model gives Ards a 59% chance of winning this.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Ards Clean Sheet 20%
Warrenpoint Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ards Warrenpoint
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 14 8
Draws 6 3
Losses 12 18
Goals Scored 1.72 1
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 NIFL Championship
Warrenpoint vs Ards
1:3
Apr 25, 2026 NIFL Championship
Warrenpoint vs Ards
0:1
Mar 21, 2026 NIFL Championship
Ards vs Warrenpoint
3:0
Dec 26, 2025 NIFL Championship
Ards vs Warrenpoint
0:0
Sep 13, 2025 NIFL Championship
Warrenpoint vs Ards
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ards 85 / 100
Warrenpoint 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ards Warrenpoint

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ards Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ards's goal record stands at 75% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Warrenpoint has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Ards has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ards VS Warrenpoint
1.13 Goals Scored 0.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ards

(Home)
15 Aug
Warrenpoint
1 : 3
Ards
11 Aug
Ards
2 : 2
Dundela
08 Aug
Glenavon
1 : 3
Ards
28 Jul
Carrick Rangers
1 : 0
Ards
16 Jul
Bangor FC
2 : 0
Ards
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Warrenpoint

(Away)
15 Aug
Warrenpoint
1 : 3
Ards
11 Aug
Warrenpoint
2 : 0
Armagh
08 Aug
Harland & Wolff
3 : 0
Warrenpoint
21 Jul
Cliftonville
2 : 1
Warrenpoint
11 Jul
Crusaders
2 : 0
Warrenpoint
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Limavady 33 21 8 4 61:32 71
2 Annagh 33 22 5 6 54:27 71
3 Harland & Wolff 33 17 8 8 77:41 59
4 Newington FC 33 15 6 12 69:52 51
5 Loughgall 33 13 12 8 46:34 51
6 Queens University 33 12 11 10 43:42 47
7 Institute 33 13 7 13 47:43 46
8 Ards 33 12 7 14 50:46 43
9 Warrenpoint 33 10 6 17 44:50 36
10 Ballinamallard 33 8 10 15 36:52 34
11 Dundela 33 3 11 19 37:73 20
12 Armagh 33 4 5 24 28:100 17
Promotion - NIFL Championship 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - NIFL Championship 2025/2026 (Relegation Group)