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Arenas Armilla vs Atletico de Porcuna

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Ruiz O.
90' Event
Romero A.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 9 game between Arenas Armilla and Atletico de Porcuna finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atletico de Porcuna.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Arenas Armilla
39%
Draws
31%
Atletico de Porcuna
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Atletico de Porcuna's 1.29 goals per match outpaces what Arenas Armilla have produced (0.88).
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 9 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 60.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Arenas Armilla Clean Sheet 68%
Atletico de Porcuna Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arenas Armilla Atletico de Porcuna
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 13
Draws 9 4
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 0.88 1.29
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.29
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.43

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Arenas Armilla vs Atletico de Porcuna
0:2
Sep 21, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Atletico de Porcuna vs Arenas Armilla
0:1
Apr 6, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Atletico de Porcuna vs Arenas Armilla
1:1
Nov 24, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Arenas Armilla vs Atletico de Porcuna
1:2
Apr 23, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Atletico de Porcuna vs Arenas Armilla
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arenas Armilla Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Atletico de Porcuna Compare

Top Goalscorer Ruiz O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Romero A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.17
Avg xA / game 0.72

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arenas Armilla 41 / 100
Atletico de Porcuna 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arenas Armilla Atletico de Porcuna

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ARE Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Arenas Armilla scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Atletico de Porcuna has conceded goals in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Solid form: Arenas Armilla remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Arenas Armilla VS Atletico de Porcuna
0.88 Goals Scored 1.29
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.43
50% Over 1.5 71%
25% Over 2.5 71%
13% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Arenas Armilla

(Home)
20 Jun
Pena Deportiva
5 : 2
Arenas Armilla
14 Jun
Arenas Armilla
1 : 1
Pena Deportiva
07 Jun
Motril
1 : 1
Arenas Armilla
31 May
Arenas Armilla
1 : 0
Motril
24 May
Torre del Mar
0 : 1
Arenas Armilla
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Atletico de Porcuna

(Away)
10 May
Motril
2 : 1
Atletico de Porcuna
03 May
Atletico de Porcuna
1 : 0
Torre del Mar
25 Apr
El Palo
1 : 2
Atletico de Porcuna
19 Apr
Atletico de Porcuna
2 : 3
UD San Pedro
12 Apr
CD Alhaurino
3 : 0
Atletico de Porcuna
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Mijas Las Lagunas34199646:2466
2Motril341811555:2965
3Torre del Mar341413737:2655
4Arenas Armilla341591038:2954
5Churriana de la Vega3414101032:4052
6Marbelli341491136:2851
7Ciudad de Torredonjimeno3413111039:3850
8UD San Pedro3413101139:3749
9Atletico de Porcuna341441641:3946
10Huetor Vega341291343:4245
11Granada CF B3410141049:4744
12CD Alhaurino3411101341:4143
13Melilla B349121330:3239
14Mancha349101530:3837
15Huetor Tajar349101540:4437
16Martos349101532:4837
17CD Torreperogil34961924:4533
18El Palo34691928:5327
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 9 (Play Offs)