Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 9

Churriana de la Vega

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Arenas Armilla play Churriana de la Vega in the Tercera RFEF - Group 9. It looks like a close match. Recently, Arenas Armilla averaged 1.12 goals scored and 0.94 conceded. Churriana de la Vega averaged 0.87 goals scored and 1.19 conceded. In past meetings, Arenas Armilla won 1, Churriana de la Vega won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 15, 2026 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Arenas Armilla and 1.00 for Churriana de la Vega. This points to a Arenas Armilla double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Arenas Armilla

33%

Draws

31%

Churriana de la Vega

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Arenas Armilla

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Arenas Armilla picked up more points recently compared to Churriana de la Vega.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.00 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 65%

Over 2.5 Goals 30%

Over 3.5 Goals 18%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%

Arenas Armilla Clean Sheet 23%

Churriana de la Vega Clean Sheet 11%

First Half Goal 59%

Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Arenas Armilla	Churriana de la Vega
Matches Played	33	31
Wins	14	11
Draws	10	11
Losses	9	9
Goals Scored	1.12	0.87
Goals Conceded	0.94	1.19
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9

Arenas Armilla vs Churriana de la Vega

Possession: 47% - 49% Cards: 1 - 3

3:0

Oct 5, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9

Churriana de la Vega vs Arenas Armilla

Possession: 51% - 47% Cards: 2 - 1

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arenas Armilla Compare

Top Goalscorer Salvatierra D.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Aguilar Rosello P.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Churriana de la Vega Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arenas Armilla 37 / 100

Churriana de la Vega 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Arenas Armilla Churriana de la Vega

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Arenas Armilla or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +28.5%

3.57

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +25.1%

4.17

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Arenas Armilla attacking → ← attacking Churriana de la Vega

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arenas Armilla scored in 70% of their last 33 games.

Churriana de la Vega let in goals in 61% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Arenas Armilla went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Churriana de la Vega lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

52 Points in last 5 44

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.00

1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mijas Las Lagunas	34	19	9	6	46:24	66
2	Motril	34	18	11	5	55:29	65
3	Torre del Mar	34	14	13	7	37:26	55
4	Arenas Armilla	34	15	9	10	38:29	54
5	Churriana de la Vega	34	14	10	10	32:40	52
6	Marbelli	34	14	9	11	36:28	51
7	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	34	13	11	10	39:38	50
8	UD San Pedro	34	13	10	11	39:37	49
9	Atletico de Porcuna	34	14	4	16	41:39	46
10	Huetor Vega	34	12	9	13	43:42	45
11	Granada CF B	34	10	14	10	49:47	44
12	CD Alhaurino	34	11	10	13	41:41	43
13	Melilla B	34	9	12	13	30:32	39
14	Mancha	34	9	10	15	30:38	37
15	Huetor Tajar	34	9	10	15	40:44	37
16	Martos	34	9	10	15	32:48	37
17	CD Torreperogil	34	9	6	19	24:45	33
18	El Palo	34	6	9	19	28:53	27