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Arenas Armilla vs Pena Deportiva

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 Campo Municipal De Armilla, Armilla
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Cabello A.
36' Event
Montori A.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-1. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

62%
Arenas Armilla
30%
Draws
8%
Pena Deportiva
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Arenas Armilla

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

62% / High Confidence
  • Pena Deportiva haven't matched Arenas Armilla's recent run of results.
  • 62% — that's where the model lands on Arenas Armilla taking it.
  • Arenas Armilla have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Arenas Armilla Clean Sheet 68%
Pena Deportiva Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arenas Armilla Pena Deportiva
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 15 13
Draws 11 8
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 1.27 1.69
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 20, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Pena Deportiva vs Arenas Armilla
5:2
Jun 14, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arenas Armilla vs Pena Deportiva
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arenas Armilla Compare

Top Goalscorer Cabello A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Pena Deportiva Compare

Top Goalscorer Montori A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arenas Armilla 95 / 100
Pena Deportiva 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arenas Armilla Pena Deportiva

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arenas Armilla Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Arenas Armilla scored in 79% of their last 33 games.

Pena Deportiva's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

Solid form: Arenas Armilla remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Arenas Armilla VS Pena Deportiva
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 88%
13% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Arenas Armilla

(Home)
27 Sept
Arenas Armilla
3 : 3
Huetor Vega
20 Sept
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1 : 1
Arenas Armilla
13 Sept
Arenas Armilla
1 : 0
Mancha
06 Sept
Atletico de Marbella
0 : 2
Arenas Armilla
20 Jun
Pena Deportiva
5 : 2
Arenas Armilla
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Pena Deportiva

(Away)
27 Sept
Pena Deportiva
0 : 2
Real Murcia B
20 Sept
Ilicitano
1 : 0
Pena Deportiva
13 Sept
Pena Deportiva
1 : 1
Yeclano
06 Sept
Deportiva Minera
1 : 0
Pena Deportiva
14 Aug
UD Ibiza
5 : 0
Pena Deportiva
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
CD Tropezon 1
Arnedo 2
Real Murcia B 3
Pamplona 2
Guijuelo 2
Tamaraceite 3
Trival Valderas 0
La Nucia 1
Compostela 3
CF Badalona 2
Arenas Armilla 3
Pena Deportiva 6
Atletico Central 3
Caudal Deportivo 1
CD Badajoz 3
CD Cuarte 2
Leioa 1
Albacete B 2