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Arenas Armilla vs Pena Deportiva

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 Campo Municipal De Armilla
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Arenas Armilla play Pena Deportiva in the Tercera RFEF - Group 1. It looks like a close match. Recently, Arenas Armilla averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1 conceded. Pena Deportiva averaged 1.93 goals scored and 1 conceded. In past meetings, Arenas Armilla won 0, Pena Deportiva won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 20, 2026 ended 5:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Arenas Armilla and 1.63 for Pena Deportiva. This points to a Pena Deportiva double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Arenas Armilla
30%
Draws
39%
Pena Deportiva
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Pena Deportiva

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Arenas Armilla picked up more points recently compared to Pena Deportiva.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 76%
Over 2.5 Goals 40%
Over 3.5 Goals 24%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%
Arenas Armilla Clean Sheet 14%
Pena Deportiva Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arenas Armilla Pena Deportiva
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 16
Draws 9 9
Losses 8 5
Goals Scored 1.17 1.93
Goals Conceded 1 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 20, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Pena Deportiva vs Arenas Armilla
5:2
Jun 14, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arenas Armilla vs Pena Deportiva
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arenas Armilla Compare

Top Goalscorer Cabello A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Pena Deportiva Compare

Top Goalscorer Montori A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arenas Armilla 31 / 100
Pena Deportiva 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arenas Armilla Pena Deportiva

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Pena Deportiva or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +34.8%
4.35
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.6%
2.94
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Arenas Armilla attacking → ← attacking Pena Deportiva

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arenas Armilla scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Pena Deportiva let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Arenas Armilla went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Pena Deportiva lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

48 Points in last 5 57
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 2.38
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13