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Arenas Getxo vs UD Ourense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Primera RFEF - Group 1 Estadio Municipal de Fadura, Getxo
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Arenas Getxo host UD Ourense in the Primera RFEF - Group 1. Little to choose between these two on current form. Arenas Getxo have averaged 1.14 scored and 1.68 conceded recently, against UD Ourense's 1.24 scored and 1.14 conceded. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. Model xG sits at 1.06 vs 1.25, favoring UD Ourense. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Arenas Getxo
30%
Draws
58%
UD Ourense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: UD Ourense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Arenas Getxo haven't matched UD Ourense's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular Primera RFEF - Group 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Arenas Getxo Clean Sheet 19%
UD Ourense Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arenas Getxo UD Ourense
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 9 12
Draws 7 8
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.14 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.68 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arenas Getxo 36 / 100
UD Ourense 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arenas Getxo UD Ourense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UD Ourense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arenas Getxo scored in 68% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: UD Ourense conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

Recent resilience: Arenas Getxo stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Difficult form: UD Ourense registered 2 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Arenas Getxo VS UD Ourense
0.63 Goals Scored 0.5
2 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Arenas Getxo

(Home)
03 Oct
Barakaldo
1 : 1
Arenas Getxo
26 Sept
Arenas Getxo
0 : 3
Ath Bilbao B
20 Sept
Cacereno
3 : 0
Arenas Getxo
13 Sept
Arenas Getxo
1 : 2
Zamora
05 Sept
Pontevedra
4 : 1
Arenas Getxo
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UD Ourense

(Away)
10 Oct
UD Ourense
1 : 0
Barakaldo
03 Oct
Real Union
1 : 1
UD Ourense
27 Sept
UD Ourense
0 : 0
Cacereno
19 Sept
Unionistas de Salamanca
3 : 1
UD Ourense
12 Sept
UD Ourense
0 : 3
UD Logrones
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Logrones 6 5 1 0 15:7 16
2 Lugo 6 5 1 0 9:3 16
3 Racing Club Ferrol 7 4 1 2 8:5 13
4 Ath Bilbao B 7 3 3 1 12:8 12
5 Cacereno 7 3 3 1 7:4 12
6 Mirandes 7 3 2 2 10:8 11
7 Zamora 7 3 2 2 9:7 11
8 Ponferradina 6 3 2 1 5:3 11
9 Real Union 7 2 3 2 13:11 9
10 CD Extremadura 7 3 0 4 9:8 9
11 Pontevedra 6 2 2 2 8:8 8
12 Deportivo Fabril 7 2 2 3 8:8 8
13 Leonesa 6 2 2 2 4:5 8
14 Unionistas de Salamanca 7 2 1 4 10:13 7
15 AD Merida 6 2 0 4 9:11 6
16 Barakaldo 7 1 3 3 6:10 6
17 Real Aviles 6 1 2 3 9:10 5
18 CD Coria 7 1 2 4 10:15 5
19 UD Ourense 7 1 2 4 3:10 5
20 Arenas Getxo 6 0 2 4 4:14 2
Promotion - LaLiga2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Primera RFEF - Group 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)