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Ariana vs Kalaa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Tunisia Tunisia

Ligue 2
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
01:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ariana host Kalaa in the Ligue 2. This one's hard to separate. Kalaa have shipped 1.93 goals a game lately, while Ariana have conceded 1.2 and scored 0.87. Past meetings favor Ariana slightly — 3-2-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jan 17, 2026, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 1.69 vs 1.25, favoring Ariana. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Ariana
30%
Draws
47%
Kalaa
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Kalaa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

23% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Kalaa lately — more wins on the board than Ariana.
  • Win probability leans Ariana's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Ariana Clean Sheet 19%
Kalaa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ariana Kalaa
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 8 9
Draws 9 3
Losses 13 17
Goals Scored 0.87 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.2 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 17, 2026 Ligue 2
Ariana vs Kalaa
1:0
Sep 21, 2025 Ligue 2
Kalaa vs Ariana
2:1
Feb 22, 2025 Ligue 2
Ariana vs Kalaa
5:2
Nov 2, 2024 Ligue 2
Kalaa vs Ariana
3:2
Feb 7, 2024 Ligue 2
Kalaa vs Ariana
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ariana 49 / 100
Kalaa 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ariana Kalaa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ariana Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kalaa let in goals in 93% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Recent resilience: Ariana stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Kalaa lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ariana VS Kalaa
1 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Ariana

(Home)
04 Oct
Jendouba Sport
1 : 0
Ariana
27 Sept
Ariana
1 : 1
Stade Gabesien
16 Aug
Club Africain
2 : 0
Ariana
12 May
Moknine
1 : 1
Ariana
02 May
Ariana
1 : 1
Gafsa
Page 1 of 6

Kalaa

(Away)
04 Oct
Kalaa
0 : 1
JS Kairouan
27 Sept
CO Medenine
1 : 2
Kalaa
12 Sept
Kerkennah
5 : 0
Kalaa
12 May
Kalaa
1 : 3
Jendouba Sport
02 May
Ksour Essef
1 : 2
Kalaa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 EM Mahdia 2 2 0 0 4:2 6
2 Soliman 2 1 1 0 4:1 4
3 Megrine 2 1 1 0 3:2 4
4 Msaken 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
5 Sfax Railways 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
6 BS Bouhajla 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
7 Sporting Ben Arous 2 1 0 1 4:2 3
8 US Tataouine 2 1 0 1 2:4 3
9 ES Beni-Khalled 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
10 Stade Soussien 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
11 AS Gabes 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
12 Chebba 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
13 AS Agareb 2 0 1 1 2:5 1
14 Kerkennah 2 0 0 2 2:4 0
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Promotion - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Redeyef 2 2 0 0 6:0 6
2 Kasserine 2 2 0 0 3:1 6
3 JS Kairouan 2 2 0 0 2:0 6
4 Ksour Essef 2 1 1 0 1:0 4
5 Korba 2 1 0 1 3:1 3
6 Kalaa 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
7 Jendouba Sport 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
8 Bouchamma 2 1 0 1 1:3 3
9 Stade Gabesien 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
10 Ariana 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
11 Olympique Kef 2 0 1 1 0:1 1
12 Moknine 2 0 1 1 0:3 1
13 CO Medenine 2 0 0 2 1:3 0
14 Gafsa 2 0 0 2 1:5 0
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Promotion - Play Offs)