Sport Picks

Cyprus

Cyprus League Alphamega Stadium

Apollon Limassol

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Aris Limassol play Apollon Limassol in the Cyprus League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Aris Limassol averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.41 conceded. Apollon Limassol averaged 1.59 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. In past meetings, Aris Limassol won 4, Apollon Limassol won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 16, 2026 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Aris Limassol and 1.75 for Apollon Limassol. This points to a Apollon Limassol double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%

Aris Limassol

15%

Draws

51%

Apollon Limassol

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Apollon Limassol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence

Aris Limassol picked up more points recently compared to Apollon Limassol.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.75 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 79%

Over 2.5 Goals 54%

Over 3.5 Goals 32%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%

Aris Limassol Clean Sheet 12%

Apollon Limassol Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 71%

Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Aris Limassol	Apollon Limassol
Matches Played	29	29
Wins	9	18
Draws	7	5
Losses	13	6
Goals Scored	1.55	1.59
Goals Conceded	1.41	1.14
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.88	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Cyprus League

Apollon Limassol vs Aris Limassol

Possession: 59% - 54% Cards: 1 - 3

3:2

Apr 18, 2026 Cyprus League

Aris Limassol vs Apollon Limassol

Possession: 54% - 56% Cards: 1 - 0

3:0

Dec 14, 2025 Cyprus League

Apollon Limassol vs Aris Limassol

Possession: 57% - 44% Cards: 3 - 3

0:2

Aug 23, 2025 Cyprus League

Aris Limassol vs Apollon Limassol

Possession: 43% - 59% Cards: 2 - 4

3:1

May 18, 2025 Cyprus League

Apollon Limassol vs Aris Limassol

Possession: 50% - 45% Cards: 2 - 1

2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aris Limassol Compare

Top Goalscorer Effaghe R.

2 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Apollon Limassol Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48

Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aris Limassol 33 / 100

Apollon Limassol 48 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Aris Limassol Apollon Limassol

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Apollon Limassol or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +30.9%

3.85

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.3%

2.08

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Aris Limassol attacking → ← attacking Apollon Limassol

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aris Limassol scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Apollon Limassol let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Aris Limassol went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Apollon Limassol lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

34 Points in last 5 59

1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.63

1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Omonia	36	27	6	3	88:24	87
2	AEK Larnaca	36	20	9	7	62:33	69
3	Apollon Limassol	36	20	7	9	52:41	67
4	Pafos	36	18	8	10	66:38	62
5	APOEL	36	15	7	14	53:45	52
6	Aris Limassol	36	14	9	13	61:45	51