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Aris Limassol vs Pafos - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Cyprus Cyprus

Cyprus League 2025/2026 Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi
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Match Events

13' Event
Charalampous C.
45'
Anderson
61'
Sub
Dani Silva In: Jaja
Out: Dani Silva

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Cyprus League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Aris Limassol
20%
Draws
47%
Pafos
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Pafos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Pafos lately — more wins on the board than Aris Limassol.
  • 33% — that's where the model lands on Aris Limassol taking it.
  • Regular Cyprus League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Aris Limassol Clean Sheet 15%
Pafos Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aris Limassol Pafos
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 7 11
Draws 9 10
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.5 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.54 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Cyprus League
Pafos vs Aris Limassol
2:0
Apr 14, 2026 Cyprus League
Aris Limassol vs Pafos
1:1
Mar 1, 2026 Cyprus League
Aris Limassol vs Pafos
2:2
Nov 21, 2025 Cyprus League
Pafos vs Aris Limassol
2:1
May 4, 2025 Cyprus League
Pafos vs Aris Limassol
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aris Limassol Compare

Top Goalscorer Charalampous C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Pafos Compare

Top Goalscorer Lele
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aris Limassol 39 / 100
Pafos 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aris Limassol Pafos

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aris Limassol Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aris Limassol scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Pafos let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Solid form: Aris Limassol remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Aris Limassol VS Pafos
1.88 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Aris Limassol

(Home)
03 Oct
Aris Limassol
1 : 2
Riga FC
26 Sept
Aris Limassol
4 : 2
Omonia 29th May
20 Sept
Aris Limassol
0 : 0
Karmiotissa
14 Sept
Krasava
0 : 1
Aris Limassol
07 Sept
Aris Limassol
1 : 4
Omonia
Page 1 of 6

Pafos

(Away)
18 Sept
Pafos
0 : 2
AEL Limassol
13 Sept
AEK Larnaca
0 : 1
Pafos
07 Sept
Pafos
0 : 0
Ol. Nicosia
03 Sept
Omonia
0 : 1
Pafos
30 Aug
Karmiotissa
0 : 3
Pafos
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Omonia 36 27 6 3 88:24 87
2 AEK Larnaca 36 20 9 7 62:33 69
3 Apollon Limassol 36 20 7 9 52:41 67
4 Pafos 36 18 8 10 66:38 62
5 APOEL 36 15 7 14 53:45 52
6 Aris Limassol 36 14 9 13 61:45 51
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)