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Arkadag vs Ahal Prediction & H2H Stats

Turkmenistan Turkmenistan

Yokary Liga
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AI Match Summary

The Yokary Liga game between Arkadag and Ahal finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Arkadag.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Arkadag
15%
Draws
32%
Ahal
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arkadag

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Arkadag come out ahead of Ahal on wins alone.
  • Model gives Arkadag a 53% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 87%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Arkadag have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 87%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Arkadag Clean Sheet 16%
Ahal Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arkadag Ahal
Matches Played 32 32
Wins 29 20
Draws 0 5
Losses 3 7
Goals Scored 3.31 2.28
Goals Conceded 0.53 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 2.44 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 28, 2026 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs Arkadag
0:4
Aug 16, 2026 Yokary Liga
Arkadag vs Ahal
2:1
May 20, 2026 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs Arkadag
0:4
Apr 12, 2026 Yokary Liga
Arkadag vs Ahal
1:0
Oct 26, 2025 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs Arkadag
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arkadag 84 / 100
Ahal 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arkadag Ahal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arkadag Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Arkadag scored in 91% of their last 32 outings.

Arkadag went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Ahal has conceded goals in 53% of their last 32 outings.

Scoring Trends

Arkadag VS Ahal
3.25 Goals Scored 2.63
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 100%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Arkadag

(Home)
28 Sept
Ahal
0 : 4
Arkadag
24 Sept
Merw
0 : 5
Arkadag
20 Sept
Kopetdag Asgabat
0 : 1
Arkadag
15 Sept
Arkadag
1 : 0
Al Muharraq
05 Sept
Nebitci
2 : 4
Arkadag
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Ahal

(Away)
28 Sept
Ahal
0 : 4
Arkadag
19 Sept
FC Asgabat
2 : 5
Ahal
12 Sept
Ahal
3 : 0
Nebitci
05 Sept
Sagadam
2 : 1
Ahal
22 Aug
Ahal
4 : 0
Merw
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