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Arkadag vs Ahal - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Turkmenistan Turkmenistan

Yokary Liga
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Arkadag in this Yokary Liga matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Arkadag.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Arkadag
20%
Draws
23%
Ahal
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Arkadag

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Arkadag lately — more wins on the board than Ahal.
  • Win probability leans Arkadag's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).
  • History favors Arkadag here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Arkadag Clean Sheet 20%
Ahal Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arkadag Ahal
Matches Played 34 33
Wins 32 19
Draws 1 5
Losses 1 9
Goals Scored 3.47 2.15
Goals Conceded 0.44 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 28, 2026 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs Arkadag
0:4
Aug 16, 2026 Yokary Liga
Arkadag vs Ahal
2:1
May 20, 2026 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs Arkadag
0:4
Apr 12, 2026 Yokary Liga
Arkadag vs Ahal
1:0
Oct 26, 2025 Yokary Liga
Ahal vs Arkadag
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arkadag 85 / 100
Ahal 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arkadag Ahal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arkadag Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Arkadag scored in 97% of their last 34 outings.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Arkadag went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Ahal lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Arkadag VS Ahal
3.25 Goals Scored 1.75
0.25 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Arkadag

(Home)
28 Oct
Gol Gohar
0 : 0
Arkadag
19 Oct
Arkadag
4 : 0
Sagadam
14 Oct
Al Jazira
2 : 1
Arkadag
03 Oct
Arkadag
5 : 0
Kopetdag Asgabat
28 Sept
Ahal
0 : 4
Arkadag
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Ahal

(Away)
23 Oct
Ahal
2 : 1
Al Ansar
20 Oct
Al Ittihad Aleppo
5 : 1
Ahal
17 Oct
Ahal
2 : 2
Paro
07 Oct
Ahal
0 : 2
Altyn Asyr
28 Sept
Ahal
0 : 4
Arkadag
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