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Arnedo vs Racing Rioja

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Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Tata O.
19' Event
Mwanza I.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Arnedo
15%
Draws
0%
Racing Rioja
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arnedo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Racing Rioja haven't matched Arnedo's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Arnedo's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Arnedo have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Arnedo Clean Sheet 20%
Racing Rioja Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arnedo Racing Rioja
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 19 9
Draws 7 5
Losses 4 16
Goals Scored 2.23 1
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 2.35 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 4, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Racing Rioja vs Arnedo
2:4
Sep 17, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Arnedo vs Racing Rioja
1:1
Mar 25, 2023 Segunda RFEF - Group 2
Racing Rioja vs Arnedo
0:4
Nov 6, 2022 Segunda RFEF - Group 2
Arnedo vs Racing Rioja
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arnedo Compare

Top Goalscorer Mwanza I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.81
Avg xA / game 1.18

Racing Rioja Compare

Top Goalscorer Tata O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arnedo 85 / 100
Racing Rioja 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arnedo Racing Rioja

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arnedo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arnedo found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (30 games).

These sides typically produce 3.50 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Racing Rioja registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Racing Rioja's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Arnedo VS -
3.5 Goals Scored 0
0.5 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Arnedo

(Home)
06 Sept
Arnedo
1 : 4
CE Manresa
29 Aug
Arnedo
2 : 2
Naxara
20 Jun
Arnedo
2 : 0
CD Tropezon
13 Jun
CD Tropezon
1 : 0
Arnedo
07 Jun
Arnedo
3 : 2
Oyonesa
Page 1 of 6

Racing Rioja

(Away)
12 May
Racing Rioja
0 : 3
UD Logrones B
05 May
Oyonesa
2 : 1
Racing Rioja
01 May
Racing Rioja
0 : 4
Comillas CF
27 Apr
Berceo
5 : 2
Racing Rioja
21 Apr
Racing Rioja
1 : 2
Casalarreina CF
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Logrones B 34 23 7 4 67:19 76
2 Alfaro 34 23 7 4 80:36 76
3 CD Calahorra B 34 20 7 7 70:34 67
4 Anguiano 34 19 8 7 69:41 65
5 Varea 34 18 7 9 59:31 61
6 Oyonesa 34 17 7 10 46:28 58
7 Casalarreina CF 34 15 10 9 57:49 55
8 CDFC La Calzada 34 13 9 12 52:43 48
9 Berceo 34 13 8 13 43:44 47
10 Arnedo 34 11 9 14 36:48 42
11 Pena Balsamaiso 34 12 6 16 51:62 42
12 Racing Rioja 34 11 6 17 37:55 39
13 River Ebro 34 10 8 16 40:50 38
14 Vianes 34 9 6 19 30:62 33
15 Haro Deportivo 34 8 7 19 38:50 31
16 CD Tedeon 34 8 6 20 25:61 30
17 Comillas CF 34 3 15 16 38:59 24
18 CCD Alberite 34 4 5 25 37:103 17
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2023/2024 (Play Offs)