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Arosa SC vs Somozas

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Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026
Arosa SC Logo

Arosa SC

1 - 0
FT
Somozas Logo

Somozas

Our Tip

Match Events

76' Event
Bellas B.
Own Goal
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Arosa SC in this Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Arosa SC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Arosa SC
35%
Draws
24%
Somozas
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Arosa SC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Arosa SC have won more games recently than Somozas.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Arosa SC Clean Sheet 68%
Somozas Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arosa SC Somozas
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 18 10
Draws 8 11
Losses 4 9
Goals Scored 1.57 1.03
Goals Conceded 1 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arosa SC vs Somozas
1:0
Nov 16, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Somozas vs Arosa SC
0:0
Apr 13, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Arosa SC vs Somozas
1:2
Dec 1, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Somozas vs Arosa SC
1:4
May 1, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Somozas vs Arosa SC
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arosa SC 41 / 100
Somozas 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arosa SC Somozas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arosa SC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arosa SC scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Somozas conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Arosa SC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Arosa SC VS Somozas
1.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Arosa SC

(Home)
13 Sept
Arosa SC
0 : 4
Gernika Club
06 Sept
Amorebieta
2 : 2
Arosa SC
01 Aug
Arosa SC
3 : 1
Pontevedra
10 May
Arosa SC
3 : 2
Celtiga
02 May
Cambados
0 : 2
Arosa SC
Page 1 of 6

Somozas

(Away)
13 Sept
Lalin
1 : 0
Somozas
06 Sept
Somozas
0 : 0
Portonovo SD
10 May
Somozas
2 : 2
CD Boiro
03 May
Barco
1 : 2
Somozas
26 Apr
Somozas
1 : 1
Compostela
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Arosa SC 34 20 10 4 58:35 70
2 Compostela 34 19 11 4 55:28 68
3 Atletico Arteixo 34 16 10 8 54:44 58
4 Estradense 34 14 11 9 46:33 53
5 Racing Club Villalbes 34 13 13 8 36:29 52
6 Gran Pena 34 13 12 9 57:42 51
7 Somozas 34 13 12 9 37:32 51
8 CD Boiro 34 13 12 9 45:29 51
9 Lugo B 34 12 12 10 41:35 48
10 Montaneros 34 12 12 10 48:42 48
11 Barco 34 13 7 14 35:41 46
12 Alondras 34 12 9 13 45:48 45
13 Celtiga 34 11 7 16 47:48 40
14 Viveiro 34 9 11 14 27:41 38
15 Silva SD 34 9 9 16 36:48 36
16 Cambados 34 4 14 16 24:43 26
17 Noia 34 6 7 21 28:57 25
18 Barbadas-Bentraces 34 4 7 23 25:69 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Play Offs)