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Arroyo vs Chinato

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Tercera Division - Group 14 2011/2012
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AI Match Summary

The Tercera Division - Group 14 2011/2012 game between Arroyo and Chinato finished 5-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Arroyo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Arroyo
20%
Draws
64%
Chinato
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Chinato

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Arroyo carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Chinato's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Arroyo have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Arroyo Clean Sheet 18%
Chinato Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arroyo Chinato
Matches Played 40 30
Wins 9 7
Draws 9 3
Losses 22 20
Goals Scored 0.95 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.77
Expected Goals (xG) 2.31 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2020 Club Friendly
Chinato vs Arroyo
2:0
Jan 29, 2012 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Arroyo vs Chinato
5:0
Sep 11, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Chinato vs Arroyo
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arroyo 28 / 100
Chinato 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arroyo Chinato

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chinato Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.33 goals.

Attacking prowess: Arroyo scored in 63% of their last 40 outings.

Chinato's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Chinato lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Arroyo VS Chinato
0.63 Goals Scored 0
1.63 Goals Conceded 4
63% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 100%
13% Over 3.5 100%

Recent Form & Match History

Arroyo

(Home)
11 May
Arroyo
2 : 2
CD Calamonte
04 May
Montijo
1 : 0
Arroyo
27 Apr
Arroyo
1 : 4
SP Villafranca
17 Apr
Moralo
5 : 0
Arroyo
13 Apr
Arroyo
1 : 2
CD Diocesano
Page 1 of 8

Chinato

(Away)
20 Aug
Jaraiz
4 : 0
Chinato
30 May
AD Llerenense
5 : 2
Chinato
23 May
Chinato
4 : 1
Fuente de Cantos
16 May
Olivenza FC
1 : 0
Chinato
09 May
Chinato
0 : 0
RCP Valverdeno
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Arroyo 38 30 5 3 100:22 95
2 Diter Zafra 38 25 6 7 63:38 81
3 Extremadura UD 38 23 9 6 75:23 78
4 Don Benito 38 23 9 6 63:29 78
5 Jerez CF 38 20 9 9 56:34 69
6 Miajadas 38 15 11 12 52:52 56
7 UD Badajoz 38 14 11 13 53:49 53
8 Merida UD 38 14 11 13 42:43 53
9 CD Coria 38 13 11 14 49:55 50
10 UP Plasencia 38 12 9 17 41:62 45
11 Ciduad de Plasencia 38 10 15 13 45:46 45
12 Valdelacalzada 38 10 15 13 31:42 45
13 Santa Amalia 38 11 11 16 53:67 44
14 Hernan Cortes 38 10 12 16 28:39 42
15 Pueblonuevo 38 11 8 19 59:83 41
16 Moralo 38 10 10 18 32:43 40
17 Atletico San Jose Promesas 38 10 9 19 60:67 39
18 Sanvicenteno 38 9 9 20 45:77 36
19 SP Villafranca 38 6 11 21 45:74 29
20 Chinato 38 3 11 24 27:74 20
Promotion - Tercera Division - Play Offs 2011/2012 (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2011/2012 (Main)